John Deere Shares Plummet 6.76% on $2.43 Billion Surge in Volume as Tariff Woes and Profit Warnings Spur Investor Flight

John Deere (DE) shares fell 6.76% on August 14, 2025, with a trading volume of $2.43 billion, up 157.36% from the previous day. The decline followed the company’s warning of $600 million in tariff-related costs for fiscal 2025, citing a $200 million impact in the third quarter alone. Despite beating earnings and revenue estimates, Deere reported a 26% drop in net income year-over-year to $1.29 billion and trimmed its full-year profit forecast to $4.75 billion–$5.25 billion.

The machinery giant attributed weaker margins to elevated tariffs, production costs, and inventory challenges. CEO John May acknowledged “challenging times” driven by declining shipment volumes and pricing pressures. Investors reacted swiftly, pushing the stock near its 200-day moving average as sector peers like Caterpillar also faced headwinds. Deere’s revised guidance highlighted ongoing struggles in its core production and precision agriculture segments, with sales declines projected in 2025.

Technical indicators suggest a critical juncture for DE. The stock’s 8.07% intraday drop has drawn attention to support levels near $495.40 and resistance at $508.83. Elevated implied volatility (IV) and moderate RSI readings position the stock for potential directional moves, though liquidity remains robust. Analysts note that a break below $495.40 could trigger further downside, while a rebound above $508.83 may test the 52-week high of $533.78.

A backtest of Deere’s performance after an 8% intraday drop showed a 56.90% win rate over three days, 57.92% over 10 days, and 62.01% over 30 days. The maximum return during the test period reached 5.94% on day 59, indicating historical recovery potential following sharp declines. These results align with Deere’s pattern of volatility amid macroeconomic pressures and sector-specific challenges.