Joby Aviation Surges 4.7% Amid Certification Hype and Production Expansion – What’s Next?

Summary
• JOBY shares jump 4.89% to $14.89, breaking above $14.45 intraday low
• Toyota partnership and FAA certification progress drive optimism
• $13B market cap reflects 14.5x price-to-book premium over peers

Joby Aviation’s stock is surging on a mix of regulatory optimism and production expansion plans. With a 4.7% intraday gain, the eVTOL pioneer is trading near its 52-week high of $20.95, fueled by news of FAA certification milestones and a $1B+ sales pipeline. Investors are weighing whether this rally is a sustainable inflection point or a short-term hype play.

Regulatory Progress and Production Hype Drive JOBY's Rally
JOBY’s 4.7% surge stems from dual catalysts: imminent FAA certification and a production capacity doubling by 2027. The company recently began power-on testing for its first FAA-conforming aircraft, a critical step toward commercialization. Simultaneously, its partnership with Toyota to scale manufacturing has injected confidence, with the automaker’s expertise seen as pivotal for scaling eVTOL production. These developments align with U.S. government support, including the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, which accelerates limited operations before full certification. Short-term momentum is also fueled by a $1B+ sales backlog and global vertiport expansion plans.

Aerospace Sector Mixed as JOBY Outperforms Peers
While JOBY surges, the broader aerospace sector shows mixed momentum. Boeing (BA) rose 0.98% on defense contract optimism, but JOBY’s 4.7% gain highlights its unique position in the high-growth eVTOL niche. Unlike traditional aerospace firms, JOBY’s valuation hinges on regulatory progress and commercial adoption rather than near-term revenue. This divergence underscores investor appetite for disruptive tech plays, even as sector peers like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon focus on defense spending tailwinds.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on JOBY's Volatility
• RSI: 55.02 (neutral) • MACD: -0.248 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: $12.81–$16.02 • 200D MA: $12.07 (below price)

JOBY’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias amid a long-term ranging pattern. Key levels to watch: $15.50 (resistance) and $14.50 (support). The Tradr 2X Long JOBY Daily ETF (JOBX) offers leveraged exposure, up 9.05% today, but its 2X structure amplifies volatility risks. For options, two contracts stand out:

• JOBY20251226C15 (Call, $15 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 67.79% (moderate)
- Leverage: 37.10%
- Delta: 0.465 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.101 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.337 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $42,413
This call benefits from high gamma and moderate delta, ideal for a $15.50 breakout. Projected 5% upside (to $15.63) yields a $0.63 payoff.

• JOBY20260102C15.5 (Call, $15.50 strike, 1/2 expiry):
- IV: 64.02% (moderate)
- Leverage: 74.20%
- Delta: 0.296 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.073 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.311 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $74,224
This longer-dated call offers higher leverage and gamma, suitable for a sustained rally above $15.50. A 5% upside (to $15.63) yields a $0.13 payoff.

Aggressive bulls may consider JOBY20251226C15 into a $15.50 breakout, while longer-term players can target JOBY20260102C15.5 for a sustained move.

Backtest Joby Aviation Stock Performance
Here is the completed back-test of the “+5 % Intraday Surge” strategy for Joby Aviation (ticker: JOBY) covering 1 Jan 2022 – 22 Oct 2025. Key assumptions we auto-filled (not specified by you):1. Definition of “+5 % intraday surge”: A trading day whose (High − Low)/High ≥ +5 %2. Entry timing: Take position at the next session’s open after a surge day.3. Risk controls: - 20 % take-profit – Closes position once +20 % is reached. - 8 % stop-loss – Exits if loss hits −8 %. - Max holding period of 20 trading days (whichever exit comes first).These default levels are common in short-term momentum/reversal studies and help bound tail-risk while allowing upside capture.[Learn more](https://www.ainvest.com/aime/share/backtest-joby-performance-5-intraday-plunge-2022-2e6303/)

Position for JOBY's Next Move – Watch $15.50 and $14.50 Levels
JOBY’s 4.7% rally reflects optimism around FAA certification and production scaling, but sustainability depends on meeting key milestones. A break above $15.50 (Bollinger upper band) could validate the bullish case, while a drop below $14.50 (200D MA) may trigger profit-taking. Investors should monitor the JOBY20251226C15 call for short-term gains and the JOBY20260102C15.5 for a longer-term play. Meanwhile, the sector leader Boeing (BA) rose 0.98%, signaling broader aerospace resilience. For those seeking leveraged exposure, JOBX offers amplified upside but carries higher volatility risks. Watch for $15.50 breakout or regulatory updates to dictate next steps.