Joby Aviation Surges 5.9% on ANA Partnership and Osaka Expo Catalysts—Is This the Inflection Point?

Summary
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) surges 5.9% to $18.08, driven by a landmark ANA Holdings joint venture and Osaka Expo demonstration flights.
• The stock trades above its 200-day moving average ($8.43) and near its 52-week high ($20.95), signaling renewed institutional interest.
• Options activity intensifies, with $18.5 call options (JOBY20250822C18.5) seeing 291 contracts traded, reflecting bullish positioning.

Joby Aviation’s intraday rally has captured market attention as the eVTOL pioneer announces a strategic partnership with ANA Holdings to deploy over 100 aircraft in Japan. The stock’s 5.9% surge to $18.08, up from an intraday low of $16.87, reflects optimism around regulatory progress and commercialization timelines. With the Osaka Expo demonstration flights and Blade Air Mobility acquisition adding infrastructure, investors are recalibrating risk-reward profiles in this high-growth sector.

ANA Partnership and Osaka Expo Drive JOBY’s Bullish Momentum
Joby Aviation’s 5.9% intraday surge is directly tied to its expanded partnership with ANA Holdings and the upcoming Osaka Expo demonstration flights. The joint venture, involving over 100 aircraft, accelerates Japan’s air taxi ecosystem and positions Joby as a key player in urban mobility. Additionally, the acquisition of Blade Air Mobility provides immediate infrastructure and customer access, validating the company’s commercial readiness. These catalysts, combined with Toyota’s $500M investment and FAA certification progress, have reignited investor confidence in Joby’s long-term vision.

Aircraft Manufacturing Sector Mixed as Boeing Gains 2.38%
The Aircraft Manufacturing sector remains fragmented, with Boeing (BA) rising 2.38% on Trump-era trade deals and production ramp-ups. However, Pilatus’ U.S. delivery pause due to tariffs highlights sector-specific risks. Joby’s rally contrasts with peers like Embraer and Airbus, which face production delays and regulatory hurdles. While Boeing’s gains reflect near-term demand, Joby’s move is driven by long-term infrastructure bets and regulatory milestones.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on JOBY’s Bullish Catalysts
• 200-day average: $8.43 (well below current price)
• RSI: 52.09 (neutral, suggesting potential for further upside)
• MACD: 1.48 (bullish) vs. Signal Line 1.83 (bearish), with a negative histogram (-0.35) indicating short-term bearish momentum
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $19.95, Middle $17.34, Lower $14.74 (current price near upper band)

Joby’s technicals suggest a short-term consolidation phase after a sharp rally. Key support at $16.58 (30D) and resistance at $19.95 (52W high) define the near-term range. The RSI at 52.09 and MACD divergence hint at potential for a pullback before a breakout. For options, focus on contracts with high leverage and liquidity to capitalize on volatility.

Top Options Picks:
• JOBY20250822C18 (Call, $18 strike, 8/22 expiration):
- IV: 78.20% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 17.26% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.55 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0789 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1609 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 55,992 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $1.04 (max(0, 19.0 - 18.0))
- Why: High gamma and IV make this call ideal for a continuation of the rally.

• JOBY20250822P18 (Put, $18 strike, 8/22 expiration):
- IV: 84.88% (very high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 18.30% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.45 (moderate bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.0126 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1482 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 16,252 (solid liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $0.00 (max(0, 18.0 - 19.0))
- Why: High IV and gamma offer downside protection if the rally stalls.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider JOBY20250822C18 into a breakout above $19.95. Conservative traders should monitor the $16.58 support level for a potential reversal.

Backtest Joby Aviation Stock Performance
The backtest of JOBY's performance after a 6% intraday increase shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 46.82%, the 10-Day win rate is 51.18%, and the 30-Day win rate is 53.36%, suggesting that JOBY tends to maintain momentum after a significant intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 9.29%, which occurred on day 59, further highlighting the stock's potential for gains following a 6% intraday increase.

Joby’s Rally Hinges on Osaka Expo and FAA Certification—Act Now
Joby Aviation’s 5.9% surge reflects a pivotal shift in investor sentiment, driven by the ANA partnership and Osaka Expo visibility. While the stock remains volatile, the 52W high at $20.95 and FAA certification progress offer a clear path for further gains. Watch for a breakout above $19.95 or a breakdown below $16.58 to confirm the trend. Meanwhile, Boeing’s 2.38% rise underscores sector-wide optimism, but Joby’s unique catalysts position it as a high-conviction play. Act now: Buy JOBY20250822C18 for a bullish bet or short the $18 put if the rally falters.