Joby Aviation Surges 5.7% on Production Expansion and Vertiport Plans Amid Regulatory Hurdles

Summary
• JOBY surges 5.73% to $15.035, hitting an intraday high of $15.40
• Toyota partnership to double eVTOL production to four units/month by 2027
• 25 new vertiport sites across the U.S. announced via Metropolis Technologies
• Cash burn of $808M over three quarters amid $978M in liquidity

Joby Aviation’s stock surged over 5% on Friday, driven by production expansion plans and vertiport partnerships. The company’s collaboration with Toyota to scale manufacturing and its agreement with Metropolis Technologies to develop 25 U.S. vertiports signaled progress in commercialization. However, regulatory delays and a $808 million net loss over three quarters highlight risks. The stock’s 5.73% gain reflects optimism about long-term infrastructure bets despite near-term operational challenges.

Production Expansion and Vertiport Partnerships Ignite Short-Term Optimism
Joby Aviation’s 5.73% intraday rally was fueled by two strategic announcements: a partnership with Toyota to double eVTOL production to four aircraft per month by 2027 and a collaboration with Metropolis Technologies to develop 25 vertiports across the U.S. These moves signal confidence in the company’s 2027 certification timeline and readiness for commercial operations. However, the stock’s gains contrast with its $808 million third-quarter net loss and lack of FAA certification, which remain critical risks. The rally also coincided with broader market optimism about eVTOL infrastructure, though demand for air taxis remains unproven at scale.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Mixed as Boeing Gains 1.1%
The Aerospace & Defense sector saw mixed performance, with Boeing (BA) rising 1.12% on news of a $3.5 billion missile-tracking satellite contract. However, JOBY’s 5.73% gain outpaced sector peers, reflecting speculative bets on eVTOL infrastructure. While Boeing’s rally was tied to defense spending, JOBY’s move was driven by commercialization progress, highlighting divergent investor priorities between established aerospace giants and emerging eVTOL innovators.

JOBY20251226C16 and JOBY20260102C16.5 Lead as High-Leverage Bets
• 200-day average: 12.06885 (below current price)
• RSI: 55.02 (neutral)
• MACD: -0.2479 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 12.8052–16.0248 (current price near upper band)

JOBY’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, with the stock trading near its 52-week high of $20.95. The Tradr 2X Long JOBY Daily ETF (JOBX) surged 11.9% alongside the stock, amplifying exposure for leveraged bulls. Two options stand out for aggressive positioning:

• JOBY20251226C16: Call option with 67.08% IV, 100.38% leverage ratio, and $16 strike price. High gamma (0.2607) and theta (-0.0629) suggest strong sensitivity to price swings and time decay. Turnover of 16,270 indicates liquidity. A 5% upside to $15.79 would yield a payoff of $0.79 per contract.
• JOBY20260102C16.5: Call option with 71.07% IV, 51.92% leverage ratio, and $16.5 strike price. High gamma (0.1681) and moderate theta (-0.0391) balance risk and reward. Turnover of 22,507 supports tradability. A 5% upside would yield a $0.29 payoff.

Aggressive bulls should consider JOBY20251226C16 into a test of the $15.40 intraday high. If the stock breaks above $15.40, JOBY20260102C16.5 offers a longer-dated leveraged play.

Backtest Joby Aviation Stock Performance
The backtest of Jody's performance following a 6% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows a significant strategy return of 97.20%, with a benchmark return of 42.97% and an excess return of 54.23%. The strategy's CAGR is 18.89%, indicating a strong compound growth rate. However, the high volatility of 80.39% and a maximum drawdown of 0.00% suggest that while the strategy has high returns, it also comes with considerable risk.

Watch for $15.40 Breakout or Regulatory Setbacks in 2026
JOBY’s 5.73% rally reflects optimism about production scaling and vertiport partnerships, but its $808 million cash burn and lack of FAA certification remain critical risks. The stock’s 52-week high of $20.95 is a distant target, requiring sustained demand and regulatory progress. Investors should monitor the JOBY20251226C16 option for short-term volatility and Boeing’s 1.12% gain as a sector benchmark. A breakdown below the 200-day average of $12.07 would signal renewed bearishness, while a sustained move above $15.40 could validate long-term infrastructure bets. Aggressive bulls: Buy JOBY20251226C16 into a $15.40 breakout.