Joby Aviation Surges 5.5% on Production Expansion and Strategic Partnerships – What’s Next?

Summary
• JOBY rockets 5.49% to $13.925, trading above 52-week low of $4.96
• Company announces plans to double U.S. production capacity by 2027
• Partners with Metropolis to develop 25 vertiports across the U.S.

Joby Aviation’s stock is surging on a wave of strategic announcements, including a production expansion and a partnership to build vertiports. The stock’s 5.5% intraday rally has pushed it above key support levels, sparking questions about sustainability and sector alignment. With the eVTOL industry in its infancy, JOBY’s moves could signal a pivotal shift in commercialization timelines.

Production Expansion and Strategic Partnerships Drive JOBY’s Intraday Rally
JOBY’s 5.49% surge is fueled by two major announcements: a plan to double U.S. manufacturing capacity to four aircraft per month by 2027 and a partnership with Metropolis Technologies to develop 25 vertiports. These moves accelerate Joby’s path to commercialization, aligning with its 2026 operational targets. The production expansion, supported by Toyota’s $1.1 billion investment, signals confidence in scaling operations. Meanwhile, the vertiport collaboration with Metropolis, a $1.5 billion SP+ acquirer, strengthens infrastructure readiness, addressing a critical bottleneck for eVTOL adoption.

eVTOL Sector Gains Momentum as Joby Outperforms Peer Archer Aviation
The eVTOL sector is showing mixed momentum, with JOBY outpacing Archer Aviation (ACHR), which rose 3.89% on the day. While both companies are vying for FAA certification, Joby’s production and infrastructure partnerships position it as a near-term leader. Archer’s recent regulatory delays and lack of concrete commercialization timelines highlight JOBY’s strategic edge. The sector’s broader rally, driven by U.S. Department of Transportation initiatives, underscores the importance of infrastructure partnerships in scaling eVTOL networks.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on JOBY’s Volatility and Sector Tailwinds
• 200-day average: $11.996 (well above), RSI: 44.04 (neutral), MACD: -0.221 (bearish), Bollinger Bands: $12.61–$16.08

JOBY’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound after a bearish trend, with key resistance at $14.35 (Bollinger Middle Band) and support at $13.90. The Tradr 2X Long JOBY Daily ETF (JOBX) surged 10.59%, reflecting leveraged bullish sentiment. For options, focus on contracts with high leverage and moderate delta to balance risk and reward.

Top Option 1: JOBY20251226C14 (Call, $14 strike, 12/26 expiry)
• IV: 64.90% (moderate), Leverage: 25.36%, Delta: 0.51, Theta: -0.0619, Gamma: 0.2805, Turnover: 70,784
• This call offers a 62.86% price change potential, with high gamma ensuring sensitivity to price swings. A 5% upside to $14.62 would yield a payoff of $0.62 per share, making it ideal for short-term bullish bets.

Top Option 2: JOBY20251226C14.5 (Call, $14.5 strike, 12/26 expiry)
• IV: 65.00% (moderate), Leverage: 39.86%, Delta: 0.375, Theta: -0.0526, Gamma: 0.2664, Turnover: 22,010
• This contract balances leverage (39.86%) with a 75% price change potential. A 5% move to $14.62 would result in a $0.12 payoff, ideal for capitalizing on a breakout above $14.50.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider JOBY20251226C14 into a bounce above $14.35, while JOBY20251226C14.5 offers a safer entry if the $14.50 level holds.

Backtest Joby Aviation Stock Performance
Joby Aviation’s stock has historically shown mixed short- to medium-term performance after intraday surges of 5% or more. The backtest reveals:1. Short-Term Underperformance: Following a ≥ 5% daily surge, Joby’s stock typically experiences a brief downturn, with a tendency to fall by 1.35% to -2.0% over the first 1 to 3 days.2. Medium-Term Recovery: However, over the next 10 days, the stock often recovers, showing an average gain of +4.4%, though this recovery is not statistically significant.3. Long-Term Gains: By 30 days post-event, the average excess return is +2.5%, trailing the benchmark slightly. In conclusion, while Joby Aviation’s stock tends to exhibit short-term volatility following significant intraday surges, medium-term holdings may offer a recovery, but the overall performance is generally modest compared to the benchmark. The recent surge of 5.88% on November 20, 2025, amid defense breakthroughs and sector-specific optimism, may follow a similar pattern, with investors monitoring the stock’s trajectory closely over the coming weeks.

Joby’s Rally Gains Legs – Watch for $14.35 Breakout and Sector Synergy
JOBY’s rally is underpinned by tangible production and infrastructure progress, positioning it as a sector leader ahead of 2026 commercialization. While technicals hint at a short-term consolidation phase, the Bollinger Middle Band at $14.35 and the 200-day average at $11.996 are critical levels to monitor. The sector’s broader momentum, led by Archer Aviation’s 3.89% gain, suggests eVTOL remains in focus. Investors should prioritize JOBY20251226C14 for a breakout trade and watch for follow-through volume above $14.35 to confirm a sustainable move.