Joby Aviation Soars 12% Amid Manufacturing Milestones—What’s Next for eVTOL Pioneer?

• Joby Aviation (JOBY) surged 11.86% to $15.605, hitting a 52-week high of $16.20
• Expanded Marina facility doubles production capacity to 24 aircraft/year, backed by Toyota collaboration
• FAA certification progress and pilot training milestones drive investor optimism
• Sector peers face headwinds as Boeing’s Starliner delays and defense contracts dominate headlines

Joby’s explosive rally marks a critical inflection point for the eVTOL pioneer, with manufacturing scale-up and strategic partnerships fueling a short-term breakout. The stock’s 43.45M shares traded volume underscores investor urgency, while its 52-week high of $16.20 signals bullish momentum.

Manufacturing Milestones and Pilot Facility Expansion Ignite Rally
Joby’s 11.86% surge stems directly from its announcement of doubling Marina facility capacity to 435,500 sq. ft., enabling 24 annual aircraft production. The expansion leverages Toyota’s manufacturing expertise, critical for FAA certification and ground/flight testing. A sixth aircraft’s rapid airworthiness certification further validates Joby’s production readiness. Investors are pricing in 2026 commercial launch potential in Dubai and U.S. cities, with the $250M Toyota tranche funding scaling efforts.

Technical Setup and Top Options for Joby’s Bullish Surge
• RSI: 82.49 (Overbought, signaling near-term correction risk)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price ($15.60) exceeds upper band ($13.48), suggesting momentum dominance
• 200-day MA: $7.29 (far below, confirming structural uptrend)

Bulls target a breakout above $16.20 (52W high) with eyes on $17.00 resistance. Short-term dips to $15.00-$15.20 offer entry points. Avoid overcommitting to calls at these RSI levels—prioritize puts for volatility plays.

Top Picks:
1. JOBY20250725C15.5 (Call, Strike 15.5, Exp: 2025-07-25)
• Delta: 0.532 | Gamma: 0.142 | Theta: -0.088 | IV: 109.11%
• Leverage: 23.78%
• Why? Near-the-money delta and gamma exposure capitalize on volatility contraction post-certification news.

2. JOBY20250725P15 (Put, Strike 15, Exp: 2025-07-25)
• Delta: -0.396 | Gamma: 0.140 | Theta: -0.022 | IV: 107.65%
• Leverage: 17.97%
• Why? High gamma and moderate theta hedge against RSI overextension.

Payoff Example (5% upside to $16.38):
- C15.5 gains $0.88 intrinsic value; P15 loses $0.62, but gamma gains offset time decay.

Action: Aggressive bulls go long C15.5 into $16.20; cautious traders sell P15 for theta decay.

Backtest Joby Aviation Stock Performance
The backtest of JOBY's performance after a 12% intraday increase shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 0.52% on the 17th day following the event, the overall short-term performance was lackluster, with the 3-day win rate at 44.32%, the 10-day win rate at 44.88%, and the 30-day win rate at 44.69%. The average returns over these periods were negative or barely positive, indicating that although the stock had a strong intraday surge, it struggled to maintain this momentum in the following days.

Joby’s Flight to 16.2 Faces Critical Certification Milestones
Joby’s ascent to $16.20—the 52-week high—depends entirely on FAA certification progress and pilot training execution. With Boeing’s Starliner delays highlighting aerospace execution risks, Joby must deliver on its 2026 commercial timeline. Traders should monitor the $16.20-$17.00 resistance cluster and 200-day MA ($7.29) as a long-term anchor. Contrast with sector laggard Boeing (BA, -0.61%), Joby’s success hinges on vertical integration and Toyota’s manufacturing playbook. Watch: FAA updates by Q4 2025 and Dayton facility completion milestones.