Joby Aviation Soars 17% Amid Production Milestones—What’s Next?

• Joby Aviation (JOBY) surged 17.3% to $16.37, hitting a 52-week high of $16.38.
• Expanded Marina production site doubles capacity ahead of 2026 air taxi launch.
• Dubai flight certifications and Toyota’s engineering integration fuel optimism.
Joby’s stock erupted Wednesday, breaking above its 52-week high on strategic manufacturing progress and FAA milestones. The $13.2B market cap ride continues despite no revenue, with investors betting on eVTOL leadership.

Production Expansion and FAA Milestones Ignite Rally
Joby’s stock exploded 17% after announcing its Marina facility expansion, doubling production capacity to 24 aircraft annually. The site now spans 435,500 sq ft, integrating FAA certification processes, pilot training, and maintenance. Simultaneously, the company achieved airworthiness certification for its sixth aircraft in Dubai—a critical step toward global regulatory approval. Toyota’s deep engineering collaboration further bolstered confidence, signaling manufacturing rigor. These moves validate Joby’s path to commercialization, contrasting with rivals like Archer Aviation’s delayed timelines.

Aerospace Sector Mixed as Joby Outshines Peers
While Boeing (BA) slipped -0.07%, Joby’s surge highlights its outlier status in the aerospace sector. The company’s focus on eVTOL innovation—rather than traditional aviation—creates a distinct narrative. Unlike legacy players grappling with geopolitical risks, Joby’s progress in vertical integration and partnerships (e.g., Toyota) positions it as a disruptor. However, the sector’s broader stagnation underscores the risks of betting on unproven technologies without revenue.

Bullish Technicals and Top Option Plays for the Air Taxi Play
Bollinger Bands: Upper band at $13.48, Middle at $10.27.
RSI: 82.5 (Overbought).
MACD: 1.23 vs Signal 0.92 (Bullish).

Joby’s break above $16.38 opens a bullish channel toward $18. Aggressive buyers target $16.50–$17.50 resistance. Key support holds at $15.50.

Top Option Picks:
1. JOBY20250725C16 (Call, $16 Strike): IV 117%, Delta 0.59, Gamma 0.12, Theta -0.099.
• Leverage Ratio: 11.03%.
• Payoff at $17.13 (5% rise): $1.13 intrinsic value.
2. JOBY20250725C16.5 (Call, $16.5 Strike): IV 117%, Delta 0.53, Gamma 0.125, Theta -0.097.
• Leverage Ratio: 13.25%.
• Payoff at $17.13: $0.63 gain.
Both contracts offer gamma-driven upside exposure. Avoid puts; theta decay risks outweigh reward.

Bulls: Buy JOBY20250725C16 for $0.31 premium, targeting $17.50.
Bear Watch: If $15.50 breaks, JOBY20250725P15.5 (IV 118%, Delta -0.34) offers short-side plays.

Backtest Joby Aviation Stock Performance
The backtest of JOBY's performance after a 17% intraday increase shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 0.48% on the 31st day following the event, the overall short-term performance was lackluster, with the 3-day and 10-day returns being negative at -0.21% and -0.17% respectively. The 30-day return was a mere 0.18%, indicating that the positive impact of the intraday surge was not sustained over longer time frames.

Hold the Course or Secure Gains? Joby’s Air Taxi Ambitions Face Critical Tests
Joby’s rally faces sustainability hurdles as it trades at $16.37—far above its $4.66 52-week low. The Marina expansion and Dubai milestones are positive, but FAA certification and revenue remain distant. Boeing’s -0.07% dip underscores sector volatility. Investors should monitor $15.50 support and $18 resistance. Aggressive bulls may layer into JOBY20250725C16 calls, but cautious traders should consider profit-taking near $17.50. Watch for FAA updates and production timelines—these will dictate whether Joby’s air taxi dream stays aloft or crashes back to Earth.