Joby Aviation Plunges 5.2% Amid Capital Raise and Regulatory Hurdles: Is the eVTOL Dream Crashing?

Summary
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) tumbles 5.23% to $15.26, erasing $1 in intraday value
• $591M capital raise at $16.85/share, a 10.9% discount to prior close
• FAA certification progress at 70% complete, but commercial launch delayed to 2026
• Sector peers like Archer Aviation (ACHR) also retreat, signaling eVTOL sector volatility

Joby Aviation’s stock faces a sharp correction as investors digest a discounted capital raise and regulatory delays. The $15.26 price, down from a $16.10 open, reflects growing skepticism about the eVTOL pioneer’s path to profitability. With $591 million raised to fund certification and commercialization, the market is weighing whether this capital infusion can offset fierce competition and unproven unit economics.

Capital Raise and Regulatory Uncertainty Weigh on JOBY
Joby’s 5.23% decline stems from a $591 million capital raise at $16.85/share, a 10.9% discount to its previous close of $16.10. This dilutive move, coupled with ongoing FAA certification delays—now 70% complete—has triggered profit-taking and renewed skepticism. The company’s $15.26 price now trades below its 30-day moving average of $16.23, signaling short-term bearish momentum. Meanwhile, global competitors like Archer Aviation and Wisk Aero are accelerating their certification timelines, intensifying pressure on Joby’s market leadership.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Volatile as eVTOL Rivals Retreat
The eVTOL sector remains under pressure as Archer Aviation (ACHR) plunges 7.45%, mirroring JOBY’s decline. Both stocks face similar headwinds: regulatory delays, unproven commercial models, and capital-intensive development. While Joby’s $591M raise outpaces Archer’s recent $300M funding round, the sector’s collective struggle to achieve profitability—Joby’s last quarterly report showed $128M in losses—highlights the gap between hype and reality. Investors are now scrutinizing unit economics and certification timelines more than ever.

Options Playbook: Puts for Protection, Calls for Aggressive Bets
• 200-day MA: $10.61 (far below current price)
• RSI: 49.57 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.299 (bullish) vs. Signal Line: 0.504 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $19.21, Middle $16.97, Lower $14.72 (price near lower band)

Joby’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish trend but a long-term bullish setup. Key support levels at $14.72 (lower Bollinger) and $13.50 (200-day MA) could trigger further declines. Aggressive bulls may consider JOBY20251031C16 (strike $16, expiration 10/31) for a leveraged play if the stock breaks above $16.50. For downside protection, JOBY20251031P15 (strike $15, expiration 10/31) offers high gamma (0.172) and implied volatility (89.77%), ideal for a 5% downside scenario. The put’s 50% price change ratio and 20.09% leverage ratio make it a high-reward hedge against a potential $14.50 breakdown.

Backtest Joby Aviation Stock Performance
Below is the interactive report for the “-5 % Plunge Bounce” strategy on JOBY (2022-01-01 – 2025-10-22). Open the module to view the detailed equity curve, trade log, and performance statistics.Key implementation notes 1. Data span: 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-22 (latest available). 2. Event identification: dates where JOBY’s close fell ≥5 % from the previous close; positions opened the next session. 3. Risk parameters (auto-filled): 8 % stop-loss, 12 % take-profit, 10-day maximum hold. These were chosen to capture short-term rebounds while capping risk. Feel free to explore the module for full metrics and trade-by-trade details, and let me know if you’d like to adjust the entry rule or risk settings.

Act Now: Target $14.72 Support or Ride the Long-Term Bull Case
Joby’s near-term outlook hinges on its ability to stabilize at $14.72 (lower Bollinger Band) or break above $16.97 (middle Bollinger). A sustained close below $14.50 would validate the bear case, while a rebound above $16.50 could reignite long-term optimism. Sector leader Archer Aviation (ACHR, -7.45%) remains a critical benchmark—its performance will signal broader eVTOL sector sentiment. Investors should prioritize options like JOBY20251031P15 for downside protection or JOBY20251031C16 for aggressive upside. Watch for a $13.50 breakdown or a $19.21 breakout by October 31 to define the next phase.