Joby Aviation Plunges 8.7%: Is the eVTOL Dream Crashing or a Buying Opportunity?

Summary
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) slumps 8.69% intraday to $17.285, breaking below its 52-week low of $4.70.
• Analysts downgrade the stock amid concerns over its $14B valuation and delayed FAA certification.
• The company’s $125M Blade acquisition and Japan expansion plans clash with a $325M Q2 net loss.
• Turnover surges to 36.34M shares, with Bollinger Bands signaling extreme volatility.

Joby Aviation’s sharp selloff has ignited a firestorm of debate among investors. The eVTOL pioneer, which recently acquired Blade Air Mobility and expanded into Japan, now faces a critical juncture as analysts question its valuation and operational timeline. With the stock trading near its intraday low of $16.90, the market is testing whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning shot for speculative growth plays.

Downgrade Fears and Valuation Woes Spark Flight
Joby’s freefall stems from a dual blow: a downgrade by HC Wainwright and Canaccord Genuity, who cited overvaluation and delayed milestones, and a broader market skepticism toward speculative tech stocks. The stock’s 400% surge since September has priced in FAA certification and commercialization years ahead of execution. Meanwhile, the $125M Blade acquisition—while strategic for rapid deployment—has yet to translate into revenue, leaving investors to question whether the $14B valuation is justified by fundamentals. The recent Q2 earnings call, which revealed a $325M net loss and $1B cash reserves, further fueled concerns about burn rates and the need for future equity raises.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Mixed as Boeing Gains
The Aerospace & Defense sector remains fragmented, with Boeing (BA) bucking the trend by rising 0.52% on hopes of 737 MAX production ramp-ups. However, leveraged ETFs like ARKX (-1.23%) and ROBO (-0.95%) lag, reflecting broader tech-sector jitters. Joby’s plunge contrasts with Boeing’s resilience, underscoring the market’s differentiation between established aerospace giants and speculative eVTOL startups. While Boeing benefits from tangible revenue and defense contracts, Joby’s reliance on future certification and unproven demand leaves it vulnerable to sentiment shifts.

Options and ETFs to Hedge the Volatility
• MACD: 2.03 (above signal line 2.02), RSI: 56.36 (neutral), 200D MA: $8.26 (far below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $17.285 near lower band ($12.12–$21.18), suggesting oversold conditions.
• Key Levels: 16.5 (strong support), 18.5 (resistance).
• Leveraged ETFs: ProShares On-Demand ETF (OND) up 1.11%, Invesco Clean Energy ETF (PBW) up 1.23%.

Two options stand out for short-term positioning:
• JOBY20250815P17 (Put, $17 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 77.71% (high volatility), Leverage: 26.75%, Delta: -0.40, Theta: -0.0099, Gamma: 0.1821, Turnover: $406K.
- This put offers asymmetric upside if the stock breaks below $17, with high gamma amplifying gains from price swings.
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.285 per share (max $285/contract).
• JOBY20250815C18 (Call, $18 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 78.20%, Leverage: 28.98%, Delta: 0.416, Theta: -0.0773, Gamma: 0.1827, Turnover: $125K.
- A bullish play if the stock rebounds above $18.50, with moderate delta and high gamma for rapid response to price moves.
- Payoff (5% downside): Breakeven at $18.90, but time decay (-0.0773) risks erosion if the rebound is delayed.

Aggressive bulls should target a bounce above $18.50 with JOBY20250815C18, while shorts may capitalize on the breakdown below $17 with JOBY20250815P17. The key is to act swiftly as the stock’s volatility and liquidity make timing critical.

Backtest Joby Aviation Stock Performance
The backtest of JOBY's performance after an intraday plunge of -9% shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is high at 50.47%, the 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 48.89%, and the 30-day win rate is 51.42%. The average returns over the backtested periods are negative, with a -0.09% return over 3 days, a -0.43% return over 10 days, and a -1.11% return over 30 days. The maximum return during the backtest period was -0.06%, which occurred on day 0, indicating that the stock did not recover its lost ground even over the short term.

Now Is the Time to Watch the 16.5–18.5 Range
Joby’s selloff has created a volatile crossroads for investors. While the stock’s fundamentals remain speculative, technicals suggest a potential rebound from the 16.5 support level, especially if the FAA certification timeline tightens. However, the $14B valuation remains precarious without near-term revenue. Watch Boeing’s 0.52% gain as a sector barometer—if aerospace giants stabilize, Joby’s rally could gain traction. For now, the 16.5–18.5 range is the battleground: break below 16.5 for bearish confirmation, above 18.5 for a short-covering rally. Position yourself with the JOBY20250815P17 put for downside protection or the JOBY20250815C18 call for a breakout play—but act decisively as time decay accelerates.