Joby Aviation (JOBY): Riding Regulatory Tailwinds to Dominate the eVTOL Boom

The eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) market is on the cusp of a revolution, and Joby Aviation (JOBY) stands at the epicenter of this transformation. With President Trump's recent executive orders accelerating aviation regulations and addressing critical barriers like Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) certification and foreign competition, Joby's path to commercialization has just been supercharged. Here's why now is the pivotal moment to invest in this leader of advanced air mobility.

Regulatory Tailwinds: Breaking Through the Final Barriers

The executive orders signed in June 2025 are a game-changer for the eVTOL sector. By mandating the FAA to finalize BVLOS rules within 240 days—a fraction of the usual timeline—the administration is slashing red tape that has historically delayed commercial operations. This directly benefits Joby, which has been refining its S5 eVTOL aircraft for years but faced regulatory hurdles in scaling beyond test flights.

The orders also tackle foreign competition, prioritizing U.S.-manufactured drones and restricting reliance on adversarial nations like China. This creates a level playing field for Joby, which has partnered with Toyota to build its aircraft in the U.S., avoiding supply chain risks tied to foreign entities. The inclusion of Joby in the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP)—which fast-tracks testing and deployment—means the company can now accelerate its timeline to certification and revenue.

Strategic Partnerships: Toyota's Role in Scaling Production

Joby's collaboration with Toyota is its secret weapon. The partnership, announced in 2021, ensures access to Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capital, critical for mass production. The executive orders further amplify this advantage by:
- Streamlining certification: The FAA's AI-driven waiver reviews and accelerated BVLOS rules will reduce delays, allowing Joby to finalize its aircraft design and begin commercial flights sooner.
- Securing supply chains: Toyota's global network and U.S. manufacturing focus align with the orders' emphasis on domestic production, shielding Joby from geopolitical risks.

With Toyota's backing, Joby is uniquely positioned to scale production at a pace competitors cannot match.

Financial Fortitude and Market Opportunity

Joby's $1.6 billion cash runway (as of Q1 2025) provides ample room to navigate near-term challenges. This liquidity buffer is critical as the company invests in finalizing its aircraft and building out its operational infrastructure. Meanwhile, the eVTOL market is projected to hit $17 billion by 2030, with demand spanning urban mobility, cargo transport, and emergency services.

The executive orders' push to prioritize U.S. innovation also opens doors for Joby to secure government contracts. For instance, the orders mandate federal agencies to favor American-made drones, which could lead to partnerships for disaster response or rural healthcare transport—sectors Joby is already targeting.

Near-Term Risks vs. Long-Term Upside

Risks remain:
- Regulatory delays: Even with the executive orders, FAA approvals could face unforeseen hiccups.
- Market adoption: Consumer and corporate buy-in for eVTOL travel is still unproven at scale.

But the long-term upside far outweighs these concerns. Joby's first-mover advantage, combined with Toyota's muscle and the regulatory tailwinds, positions it to capture a dominant share of the market. The eVTOL sector's $17 billion addressable market—coupled with Joby's valuation at just $1.2 billion (as of June 2025)—suggests significant upside potential.

Investment Thesis: Why Buy Now?

The executive orders have eliminated two of Joby's biggest hurdles: regulatory uncertainty and foreign competition dominance. With a pro-U.S. supply chain, Toyota's manufacturing support, and accelerated certification timelines, Joby is primed to deliver on its promise of 150-mph, zero-emission urban flights.

For investors, this is a rare asymmetric opportunity. The stock's current valuation reflects skepticism about execution, but the execution risks are now mitigated by the regulatory environment. The $17 billion market is too large, and Joby's strategic advantages are too robust, to ignore this bet on the future of transportation.

Actionable advice: Joby's stock is a hold for conservative investors but a buy for those willing to bet on transformative tech. The next 12–18 months will be critical as the FAA's BVLOS rules finalize and Joby's first commercial routes launch. Stay tuned for updates on its eIPP participation and partnership milestones with Toyota.

The eVTOL revolution is no longer a distant dream—it's here. With Joby at the forefront, now is the time to board the ride.