Is Joby Aviation (JOBY) Poised for a 50% Stock Surge in 2026?

The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) sector has long been a speculative bet for investors, but Joby Aviation (JOBY) appears to be emerging as a standout contender. With its aggressive push toward FAA certification, strategic partnerships, and infrastructure expansion, the company is positioning itself at the forefront of the urban air mobility (UAM) revolution. But does this momentum translate into a 50% stock surge in 2026? Let's dissect the evidence.

Regulatory Progress: Navigating the FAA's Final Hurdles

Joby's path to commercialization hinges on securing FAA Type Certification, a process that has entered its final stages. As of late 2025, the company reported being 70% complete on its side of Stage 4 of the certification program, with the FAA's progress at over 50% complete. By November 2025, Joby had initiated power-on testing of its first FAA-conforming aircraft, marking the start of Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight testing. This phase involves rigorous evaluation of the aircraft's compliance with safety and performance standards, with both Joby and FAA pilots conducting trials. If successful, this would pave the way for commercial operations as early as 2026.

The FAA's Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) National Strategy further bolsters Joby's prospects. This framework, designed to integrate eVTOLs into the national airspace, aligns with Joby's operational goals and provides regulatory clarity. Analysts note that the FAA's recent authorization of Joby's ElevateOS operating software-a critical component for air traffic management-signals growing confidence in the company's technical readiness.

Strategic Partnerships: Building the UAM Ecosystem

Joby's partnerships are not just about regulatory compliance; they're about creating a seamless customer experience. The collaboration with Metropolis Technologies to develop 25 vertiports across the U.S. is a case in point. By leveraging Metropolis' parking network and AI-based recognition technology, Joby is streamlining the transition between ground and air travel. Additionally, the integration of Metropolis' Bags VIP baggage handling service in New York City addresses a key logistical barrier for air taxi adoption.

Globally, Joby's alliances are equally robust. The partnership with ANA Holdings in Japan, supported by Toyota's infrastructure and government cooperation, plans to deploy over 100 air taxis in Tokyo. Meanwhile, agreements with Uber and Delta Air Lines aim to integrate eVTOL trips into existing air travel networks, enhancing accessibility for mainstream consumers. These partnerships not only expand Joby's market reach but also validate its business model in diverse regulatory environments.

Manufacturing and Commercial Readiness: Scaling for Takeoff

A critical bottleneck for eVTOL companies is manufacturing capacity, and Joby is actively addressing this. The company has expanded its facilities in California and Ohio, with the latter set to scale production to 500 aircraft annually by 2027. A $250 million investment from Toyota in May 2025 further accelerated these efforts, reducing final aircraft integration time by 30%.

To prepare for commercial operations, Joby has partnered with CAE to develop high-fidelity flight simulators. These tools, equipped with advanced imaging and turbulence simulation, will train up to 250 pilots annually. With pilot training infrastructure in place and manufacturing scaling, the company is demonstrating readiness to meet projected demand in key markets like Los Angeles and New York.

Analyst Outlooks: A Tale of Two Scenarios

The investment community remains divided on Joby's stock trajectory. Optimistic projections suggest a 50% surge in 2026, driven by FAA certification and international expansion. For instance, a January 2026 report highlighted Dubai as a potential launchpad for Joby's air taxi service, with U.S. markets following if certification is finalized. Similarly, a Reddit user speculated that certification-related news could push the stock to $50 before settling between $28 and $30 by year-end.

However, caution persists. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have issued conservative price targets of $10.00 and $6.00, respectively, citing regulatory risks and unprofitability. These analysts emphasize that Joby's current valuation is inflated and that challenges such as public acceptance and infrastructure costs could delay commercialization.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Bet on the Future of Flight

Joby Aviation's progress in 2025 has laid a solid foundation for 2026, with regulatory milestones, strategic partnerships, and manufacturing expansion all pointing toward commercial readiness. Yet, the road to a 50% stock surge remains fraught with uncertainty. While the FAA's final approval and international deployments could catalyze investor enthusiasm, setbacks in certification or operational scaling could temper expectations.

For investors, the key will be monitoring Joby's ability to meet its 2026 launch goals. If the company successfully navigates the final stages of certification and demonstrates scalable operations, the stock could indeed experience a dramatic upward move. However, given the speculative nature of the eVTOL sector, patience and risk tolerance will be essential.