Is Joby Aviation a Buy Below $15 as It Nears Commercialization?

The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry is at a pivotal inflection point, with Joby Aviation (JOBY) emerging as one of its most prominent players. As the company edges closer to commercialization, investors face a critical question: Is Joby a compelling buy below $15, given its progress, risks, and the broader dynamics of the high-growth, pre-revenue eVTOL sector?

Commercialization Progress: A Race Against Time

Joby has made significant strides in 2025, logging over 850 flights and 50,000 miles across four international markets, including the UAE, Japan, and the U.S. These operations have supported the final stages of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification, with the company initiating power-on testing of FAA-conforming aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) in 2026. By November 2025, Joby was in the final stage of type certification, a critical milestone for commercial launch.

The company's strategic partnerships-such as its collaboration with Uber and Toyota-have accelerated production and integration into existing mobility ecosystems. Additionally, Joby's acquisition of Blade Urban Air Mobility, which transported 40,000 passengers in Q3 2025, has provided operational insights and infrastructure for scaling services. These developments position Joby to capitalize on a market projected to grow at a 35.3% compound annual rate, reaching $4.67 billion by 2030.

Financials: Burn Rate vs. Capital Reserves

Despite its progress, Joby's financials remain a double-edged sword. The company reported a net loss of $401 million in Q3 2025, driven by certification and manufacturing costs. However, it ended the quarter with $978.1 million in cash and raised an additional $576 million through an equity offering. This liquidity cushion provides a buffer, but the high burn rate raises concerns about long-term sustainability.

Analysts note that Joby's valuation-$13.54 billion as of November 2025-reflects aggressive expectations for future cash flows. While the company's market cap is dwarfed by legacy aerospace firms, it is still 13 times its current cash reserves, highlighting the speculative nature of the investment.

Competitive Landscape: A Crowded Skies

Joby faces stiff competition from peers like Archer Aviation and EHang Holdings. Archer, for instance, has secured a 200-aircraft order from United Airlines and partnered with Stellantis for mass production. EHang, meanwhile, leads in autonomous flight with its CAAC certification in China and a growing vertiport network. These rivals are not only advancing their own certification timelines but also securing critical partnerships and capital.

Joby's advantage lies in its regulatory progress and brand recognition. As of August 2025, it was 70% through the FAA certification process, compared to peers still in earlier stages. However, the eVTOL market's winner-takes-all dynamics mean that even a slight delay in certification could cede ground to faster-moving competitors.

Risks and Rewards: A Calculated Gamble

The primary risks for Joby-and the eVTOL sector broadly-revolve around regulatory delays, market adoption, and financial sustainability. The FAA certification process is notoriously complex, and any setbacks could push commercial operations into 2027 or beyond. Additionally, the high cost of eVTOL services (estimated at $150–$200 per flight) may limit early demand to niche markets, slowing revenue generation.

Yet, the potential rewards are equally compelling. If Joby secures FAA certification and achieves scale, it could dominate the first-mover advantage in urban air mobility. The company's stock has already surged 233% in 2025, reflecting investor optimism, and analysts' price targets range from $6 to $22, with a median of $10. At $14.22 as of November 26, 2025, the stock is trading near the upper end of this range, suggesting a high degree of forward-looking optimism.

Verdict: A High-Risk, High-Reward Proposition

For investors with a high risk tolerance, Joby's current valuation below $15 may still offer asymmetric upside. The company's regulatory progress, strategic partnerships, and market leadership in a nascent industry justify its premium. However, the risks-regulatory, financial, and competitive-are substantial. A $15 entry point implies a belief that Joby will not only secure certification but also execute its commercialization strategy flawlessly in a highly uncertain environment.

In the end, the decision to invest hinges on one's appetite for volatility and confidence in the eVTOL revolution. For those who believe the skies will soon be crowded with electric air taxis, Joby could be a transformative play. For others, the risks may outweigh the rewards, particularly as the company remains unprofitable and dependent on continued capital infusions.