Joby Aviation: Assessing the Infrastructure Build-Out for the Urban Air Mobility S-Curve

Joby Aviation is now at the critical hinge point on the adoption S-curve for urban air mobility. The company has moved decisively from the early R&D phase into the final, make-or-break stage of certification. Its lead in the FAA race is no longer a promise; it is an active build-out. Joby has begun power-on testing of the first of several FAA-conforming aircraft to be built for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA), signaling the start of the most rigorous phase of validation. This isn't just incremental progress-it's the infrastructure layer being stress-tested for the next paradigm.

The setup for 2026 is clear. The company plans to conduct Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flights with FAA pilots in early 2026, the final stage before full type certification. Successfully completing this step would be the inflection point. It would transform Joby from a developer with a promising prototype into a certified commercial operator, unlocking the path to exponential growth in service readiness. The market is watching for this catalyst, with analysts noting that successful completion could potentially lead to significant stock price increases.

This certification push is being amplified by strategic partnerships that bridge the gap from technology to market. Deals with Toyota, Delta Air Lines, and Uber are helping it prepare to move from research and development toward commercialization. Toyota brings world-class manufacturing expertise for Joby's vertical model, while Delta offers a potential market for airport connections. Uber provides the essential ride-hailing platform and customer base. Together, these alliances are building the commercialization rails that will carry the infrastructure once certification is achieved. The company is already scaling production, adding more than 100 manufacturing roles and preparing for future demand.

The bottom line is that 2026 is the year the S-curve could accelerate. Joby's position as the FAA certification leader, combined with its concrete plan for TIA flights and its growing commercial ecosystem, creates a powerful setup. The successful completion of this final certification hurdle would validate its entire build-out and likely trigger a surge in commercial readiness, moving the industry from niche experimentation to mainstream adoption.

Building the Exponential Infrastructure Layer: Compute, Capacity, and Data

The race to 2026 is no longer just about getting a prototype in the air. It's about building the fundamental rails for an entire industry. Joby is aggressively constructing the infrastructure layer that will support exponential growth, focusing on three pillars: manufacturing scale, pilot training, and the accumulation of real-world data.

First, the company is scaling its industrial capacity to meet the demands of commercial operations. Joby plans to double its manufacturing capacity in the United States, to support the production of four aircraft per month in 2027. This isn't a distant goal; it's a concrete build-out happening now. The company is expanding production across California and Ohio, backed by a strategic alliance with Toyota, the world's largest auto manufacturer. This partnership provides the critical manufacturing expertise and capital needed to achieve this pace. The signal is clear: Joby is preparing for a rapid ramp-up in service readiness, ensuring it has the physical aircraft ready to deploy once certification is complete.

Second, Joby is leading in the certifiable infrastructure for its most critical resource: pilots. The company has delivered its first of two next-generation CAE simulators, which are being installed at its pilot training facility. These simulators are not just training tools; they are central to the FAA qualification process for commercial operations. With the capacity to train up to 250 pilots a year, this investment secures Joby's position as the leader in scalable, FAA-qualified training infrastructure. This is a foundational layer that must be built in parallel with aircraft production.

Finally, the company is amassing the real-world flight data that will validate its technology and accelerate certification. In 2025, Joby logged more than 850 flights across the U.S., UAE, and Japan. This reservoir of data is invaluable. It provides the evidence of safety and reliability that regulators require, while also feeding the machine learning systems that will underpin future autonomous operations. This data accumulation is the fuel for the exponential adoption curve.

Together, these investments in manufacturing, training, and data form the exponential infrastructure layer. They are the essential rails that will carry the urban air mobility paradigm from a niche technology to a mainstream transportation network. Joby is building these rails now, positioning itself to capture the first-mover advantage in the next golden age of aviation.

Financial Reality Check: Funding the Build-Out vs. Paradigm Potential

The path to a paradigm shift is paved with cash. For Joby, the massive infrastructure build-out required to lead the urban air mobility S-curve is a direct and necessary drain on its balance sheet. The company is burning through capital to secure its position, a cost that must be weighed against the exponential potential of the market it aims to capture. This tension defines the investment thesis.

The financial strain is real. Joby is investing heavily in doubling its manufacturing capacity, procuring capital equipment, and hiring for round-the-clock operations to support the production of four aircraft per month in 2027. It is also building out its pilot training simulators and accumulating flight data. All of this requires significant upfront spending. As one analysis notes, Joby is racing toward FAA certification while burning cash. This burn is the price of building the exponential rails ahead of the curve.

Yet the market is rewarding the vision. Joby's stock has massively outperformed its closest peer, Archer Aviation, in 2025. As of late January, Joby shares were up 62.4% year-to-date, a stark divergence from the more cautious or negative performance of others in the sector. This outperformance signals investor belief that Joby's vertical integration and certification leadership are worth the current financial sacrifice. The market is betting on the infrastructure layer being built now.

This build-out is being accelerated by powerful policy tailwinds. The U.S. government's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, announced in September, is designed to jumpstart operations. More importantly, a Presidential Executive Order directs the Department of Transportation and the FAA to enable mature eVTOL aircraft to begin operations in select markets as early as next year, ahead of full certification. This is a potential game-changer. It could create a commercial beachhead for Joby in 2026, even before its full type certification is complete, providing a crucial early revenue stream to fund the ongoing build-out.

The bottom line is a classic infrastructure bet. Joby is spending heavily to build the foundational layer for a future transportation paradigm. The financial reality is a high burn rate today for the chance of exponential returns tomorrow. The massive stock outperformance versus peers shows the market is leaning into that bet. The new government pilot program adds a potential catalyst that could shorten the path to cash flow, turning the build-out from a pure cost center into a revenue-generating asset. The risk is that the paradigm shift doesn't materialize as expected. The potential reward, however, is being priced into the stock's strong run.

Catalysts, Risks, and What to Watch in 2026

The setup for 2026 is a high-stakes test of whether Joby's infrastructure build-out can translate into commercial reality. The primary catalyst is clear: the successful completion of its Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flights with FAA pilots in early 2026. This final stage of certification is the inflection point that would validate the entire exponential build-out. A clean pass would unlock the path to full type certification, removing the last major regulatory overhang and likely triggering a surge in commercial readiness and stock price, as analysts have noted.

Yet the biggest risk is the certification bottleneck itself. The FAA's standards will determine the industry's financial viability and safety. Joby is navigating a demanding path under Part 21.17(b), a custom certification basis that requires meeting a mosaic of standards. The agency's approach is still being defined, and the final requirements could impose significant costs or delays. As one analysis underscores, the most consequential bottleneck is not technology but certification. If the FAA's final rules are overly stringent, they could collapse the business model for all entrants, including Joby. The company's lead position means it will set the benchmark, but it also means it bears the weight of defining that standard.

A key operational watchpoint is the first commercial service launch, planned for Dubai in 2026. This is a critical test of Joby's international expansion model. Dubai represents a high-profile, early-mover market with strong government support for advanced mobility. Successfully launching there would demonstrate the company's ability to move beyond U.S. certification and operationalize its partnerships, like the one with the Dubai Airshow. It would also provide a crucial early revenue stream and real-world data from a different regulatory and operational environment. The planned pre-commercial evaluation flights in Saudi Arabia for the first half of 2026 add another layer of international validation.

The bottom line is that 2026 is a year of decisive milestones. The TIA flights are the make-or-break regulatory catalyst. The Dubai launch is the first test of commercial execution. And the entire enterprise hinges on the FAA's final certification stance, which will shape the financial landscape for years to come. For investors, the year will be defined by watching these three points converge.