U.S. Jobs Data Skepticism Resurfaces as Trump Accuses BLS of Rigging Numbers

The controversy surrounding the credibility of U.S. employment data has resurfaced, echoing past criticisms from prominent figures such as former General Electric CEO Jack Welch. Welch, a Republican icon, once questioned the accuracy of job numbers during the Obama administration, suggesting they were manipulated to appear more favorable. His 2012 tweet criticizing the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as “Chicago guys will do anything” sparked widespread backlash, leading him to step down from his column at Fortune. Despite the criticism, Welch defended his stance, comparing the public reaction to censorship in authoritarian regimes [1].

The current administration has seen a similar pattern, with President Trump recently calling the July jobs report—a 4.2% unemployment rate—a “SCAM” and firing the BLS commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, over the figures. Like Welch, Trump has accused the agency of rigging the numbers, despite no credible evidence supporting the claim. The BLS employs a methodology that includes sampling, estimation, and regular revisions, which is standard for statistical reporting. Trump’s claims have been widely dismissed by economists and policymakers as baseless [1].

The issue highlights a broader skepticism toward official economic data, particularly in politically charged environments. The BLS has long acknowledged the limitations of the standard unemployment rate, which excludes individuals who have stopped looking for work or are in jobs that do not meet their skill levels. Alternative measures, such as U-6 and the labor force participation rate, offer a more comprehensive view of employment trends [1].

Analysts from ING noted that the recent soft jobs report has increased the market’s expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, according to Chris Turner and his team. Goldman Sachs also suggested that the path to interest rate reductions is now clearer following the report, with George Cole et al. noting a shift in market sentiment [2]. Meanwhile, JPMorgan observed that corporate earnings for the S&P 500 have exceeded expectations, with 77% of companies beating earnings and 76% outperforming revenue forecasts [3].

The broader economic outlook, however, remains uncertain. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned of a potential recession, citing weak job growth, sluggish consumer spending, and rising inflation, which he attributed to restrictive immigration policies and high tariffs [1]. The U.S. military is also facing challenges, as China’s near-monopoly on rare earth minerals—used in critical defense technologies—has led to sharp price increases, according to the Wall Street Journal [1].

Sources:

[1] Title: Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch once claimed the jobs numbers were faked. How did that turn out?

URL: https://fortune.com/2025/08/04/ge-ceo-jack-welch-jobs-numbers-faked/

[2] Title: ING on the Fed: “Friday's soft jobs report knocked the stuffing out of the dollar's rally.”

[3] Title: JPMorgan on corporate earnings: “With 65% of S&P 500 companies having reported, the season has so far been better-than-expected.”