Job Protections Win Union Support as Rail Merger Faces Antitrust Fears

The largest U.S. railroad union, SMART-TD, has endorsed the $85 billion merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, citing secured job protections for rail workersLargest rail union backs $85 billion merger after job ... - Fortune^[1]. The union, representing conductors and other rail personnel, confirmed that Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena has committed to preventing layoffs and ensuring career-long job security for employeesLargest US rail union endorses Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern …^[2]. This endorsement comes amid broader industry division, as other unions and chemical industry groups continue to oppose the deal, warning of potential monopolistic practices and reduced competitionRail merger warning: Higher costs, worse service ahead^[3].

SMART-TD President Jeremy Ferguson emphasized that the merger marks a historic shift in labor protections, stating the union’s backing is contingent on guarantees that workers will not face involuntary furloughs or career disruptionsBiggest rail union endorses Union Pacific merger - The Vindicator^[4]. However, the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division (BMWED) remains critical, arguing that the agreement fails to address risks posed by potential track leases to short-line railroads, which could force workers to accept pay cuts or relocateLargest rail union backs $85 billion merger after job ... - Fortune^[5]. BMWED President Tony Cardwell stated his union will “vehemently deny” the merger until such protections are includedBiggest rail union endorses Union Pacific merger - The Vindicator^[6].

Industry stakeholders remain split. The Rail Customer Coalition and American Chemistry Council argue the merger could exacerbate past issues, including delayed deliveries and higher shipping costs, by reducing the number of major railroads from six to fiveRail merger warning: Higher costs, worse service ahead^[7]. A consultant’s analysis cited by the coalition noted rail freight rates have surged by over 40% in the past two decades, outpacing inflation and operating cost increasesRail merger warning: Higher costs, worse service ahead^[8]. Conversely, over 100 companies, including logistics firm Knight-Swift Transportation, support the merger, anticipating streamlined coast-to-coast operations that eliminate transfer delays in ChicagoLargest rail union backs $85 billion merger after job ... - Fortune^[9]. Proponents argue the combined entity will enhance supply chain efficiency and reduce highway congestionBiggest rail union endorses Union Pacific merger - The Vindicator^[10].

Political dynamics further complicate the approval process. President Donald Trump has publicly endorsed the merger, and his recent appointment of two Republican members to the Surface Transportation Board (STB) could sway the regulatory review. The STB, which has yet to receive a formal application, faces a potential two-year evaluation period under its 2001 rules requiring mergers to “enhance competition”Railroad Merger Creates Market Risk and Needless Uncertainty^[11]. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern executives remain confident, asserting the merger aligns with national infrastructure goalsLargest rail union backs $85 billion merger after job ... - Fortune^[12].

Critics, including Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), caution that the merger could trigger a consolidation cascade, forcing rivals like BNSF and CSX to pursue mergers of their own. CPKC CEO Keith Creel warned the deal poses “unprecedented risks to customers and the supply chain,” citing integration challenges from its own 2023 mergerRailroad Merger Creates Market Risk and Needless Uncertainty^[13]. Meanwhile, railroads such as BNSF and CSX are exploring cooperative agreements to expand service without consolidation, challenging the necessity of the UP-NS mergerRailroad Merger Creates Market Risk and Needless Uncertainty^[14].

The merger’s outcome will hinge on balancing labor assurances, regulatory scrutiny, and market concerns. While supporters highlight efficiency gains and job protections, detractors stress the risks of reduced competition in an industry already dominated by six major carriers controlling 90% of freight trafficRail merger warning: Higher costs, worse service ahead^[15]. The STB’s final decision, expected within 24 months, will determine whether the deal reshapes the U.S. rail landscape or faces significant pushback from regulators and stakeholders.