Jiangxi Copper's Strong H1 Profit Growth: A Strategic Buy for Industrial Metals Exposure

Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK) has delivered a compelling performance in the first half of 2025, reporting a 19.78% year-on-year increase in profit attributable to shareholders, reaching CNY 4.451 billion [1]. This profit surge, despite a 4.97% decline in operating revenue to CNY 256.03 billion, underscores the company’s operational resilience amid a challenging trading environment [2]. The revenue dip was primarily attributed to reduced sales volume in the trading business, while a RMB943.24 million provision for asset impairments—including write-downs on inventories and fixed assets—added short-term headwinds [3]. However, the company’s decision to declare an interim dividend of RMB0.40 per share signals confidence in its ability to sustain shareholder returns [1].

The broader copper market context is equally critical. While LME prices are projected to dip to $9,100/metric tonne in Q3 2025 due to inventory unwinding and U.S. tariff pressures, long-term fundamentals remain robust [4]. Structural demand drivers—particularly in energy transition and electrification—are expected to propel the global copper market to USD 339.95 billion by 2030, growing at a 6.5% CAGR [5]. Key sectors like electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, and AI data centers are set to dominate this growth. For instance, EVs alone are projected to grow at a 14.3% CAGR through 2030, with each vehicle requiring approximately 70 kg of copper [5].

Jiangxi Copper’s strategic positioning amplifies its exposure to these trends. As a dominant player in China’s copper refining sector (accounting for 85% of domestic capacity), the company is well-placed to benefit from UHV transmission line expansions, EV component manufacturing, and AI infrastructure demand [6]. Its recent production efficiency gains—1.74% higher copper cathode output in H1 2025—and asset growth (up 28.34% to RMB247.858 billion) further reinforce its competitive edge [7]. Analysts project earnings per share of CNY1.19 for 2025, with revenue estimates at USD566.03 billion, aligning with the company’s low-cost operational model and state-backed expansion projects [8].

Despite short-term volatility, expert sentiment leans cautiously optimistic. Goldman Sachs and DBS analysts have raised price targets to HK$21 and HK$20, respectively, citing strategic expansion and China’s "anti-involution" policies aimed at curbing overcapacity [9]. While UBS and J.P. Morgan have trimmed targets to HK$14.50 and HK$10, reflecting near-term uncertainties, the broader consensus remains a "Moderate Buy" [10]. This divergence highlights the stock’s potential for both capital appreciation and defensive appeal, given its dividend yield and exposure to secular growth themes.

In conclusion, Jiangxi Copper’s H1 results, coupled with its alignment to long-term industrial demand and strategic operational improvements, present a compelling case for investors seeking industrial metals exposure. While macroeconomic risks—such as U.S. tariffs and inventory cycles—persist, the company’s resilience and market leadership position it to outperform in a rising copper price environment.

Source:
[1] Jiangxi Copper Announces 2025 Interim Results and Dividend Proposal [https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/jiangxi-copper-announces-2025-interim-results-and-dividend-proposal]
[2] Jiangxi Copper Corporation (00358) Announced Its Interim Results With a [https://news.futunn.com/en/post/61333237/jiangxi-copper-corporation-00358-announced-its-interim-results-with-a]
[3] Jiangxi Copper Announces RMB943.24 Million Asset Impairment for H1 2025 [https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/jiangxi-copper-announces-rmb943-24-million-asset-impairment-for-h1-2025]
[4] Cautious on copper: The outlook for an unwinding market [https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/copper-outlook]
[5] Copper Market Analysis Report 2025-2030 [https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-market-analysis-report-2025-081600172.html]
[6] China's Copper Smelting Dominance and the Vanishing Margins [https://www.ainvest.com/news/china-copper-smelting-dominance-vanishing-margins-global-supply-chain-crisis-2508/]
[7] Jiangxi Copper Reports Strong Profit Growth Amid Revenue Dip [https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/jiangxi-copper-reports-strong-profit-growth-amid-revenue-dip]
[8] JIANGXI COPPER (0358.HK) analyst ratings, estimates and [https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/0358.HK/analysis/]
[9] Market Pulse 2025: US Stocks Mixed, Asia Dips, Jiangxi Copper Shines Amid Anti-Involution [https://www.minichart.com.sg/2025/08/21/market-pulse-2025-us-stocks-mixed-asia-dips-jiangxi-copper-shines-amid-anti-involution-key-investment-insights-sector-updates/]
[10] Jiangxi Copper Company (0358) Stock Forecast & Price Target [https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/hk:0358/forecast]