US Jet Fuel Imports Surge as Nigeria's Dangote Refinery Pushes Barrels West

The U.S. jet fuel market is experiencing a significant shift as Nigeria's Dangote refinery ramps up exports to North America. This surge in imports is set to reshape the dynamics of the jet fuel market, particularly in terms of pricing and supply stability. The influx of jet fuel from Africa's largest refinery is expected to lower prices ahead of the peak summer travel season, but it also poses challenges and opportunities for domestic producers.

Market Dynamics and Pricing Impact

The Dangote refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has already sent six cargoes of jet fuel to U.S. ports in March 2025. This marks the highest rate of U.S. jet fuel imports since February 2023, according to data from ship-tracking service Kpler. The total U.S. jet fuel imports for March stood at around 226,000 barrels per day, a significant increase from previous months.

The surge in supply is likely to lower jet fuel prices in the U.S. ahead of the peak summer travel season. Steven Barsamian, Chief Operating Officer of storage broker TankTiger, noted that demand to lease storage tanks for jet fuel in Houston and New York Harbor in April is averaging around 700,000 barrels, five to six times the average monthly demand. This surge in demand for storage is partly due to the influx of supply from Nigeria, further indicating the impact of the Dangote refinery on the U.S. jet fuel market.

However, the window for this arbitrage opportunity is likely to close soon or shrink significantly due to elevated U.S. inventories of the aviation fuel. James Noel-Beswick, an analyst at Sparta Commodities, pointed out that the maintenance-related shutdown of the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey helped open this rare opportunity for flows from Nigeria to the U.S. But as U.S. inventories rise, the economic incentive for these shipments may diminish.

Long-Term Implications for the U.S. Refining Industry

The increased competition from the Dangote refinery could have significant long-term implications for the U.S. refining industry. The influx of jet fuel from Nigeria highlights the potential for increased competition, challenging domestic producers' economics in the largest fuel-consuming nation. As noted by trade analysts, "The shipments by the 650,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) Dangote refinery, Africa's largest, highlight its potential to reshape global fuel trading dynamics by creating a new swing supplier in the Atlantic Basin."

This competition could prompt U.S. refiners to adjust their production strategies. The Dangote refinery's output has already shown signs of success in competing with European refiners on gasoline exports. This could lead to a shift in production yields for U.S. refiners, focusing more on other high-demand products like gasoline and diesel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that U.S. refineries produced a record-high share of jet fuel in 2024, reflecting increased demand relative to other transportation fuels. However, with the influx of jet fuel from Nigeria, U.S. refiners might need to re-evaluate their production strategies to remain competitive.



Economic and Market Dynamics

The economic impact of the increased competition could also be significant. The surge in demand for storage tanks for jet fuel in Houston and New York Harbor in April is likely to lower jet fuel prices in the U.S. ahead of the peak summer travel season. As TankTiger Chief Operating Officer Steven Barsamian said, "The surge in demand, partly due to the influx of supply from Nigeria, is likely to lower jet fuel prices in the U.S. ahead of peak summer travel season." Lower prices could impact the profitability of U.S. refiners, potentially leading to adjustments in their production and pricing strategies.

The long-term market dynamics could also be influenced by the increased jet fuel imports. The EIA expects U.S. jet fuel consumption to touch a record in 2026. However, with the Dangote refinery's potential to reshape global fuel trading dynamics, the U.S. refining industry may need to adapt to these changes. As noted, "The Dangote refinery started production last January after years of construction delays, and ramped up to about 85% of capacity in early February, allowing it to sell more fuel to international markets." This suggests that the Dangote refinery could become a significant player in the global jet fuel market, potentially influencing long-term market dynamics.

Conclusion

The surge in U.S. jet fuel imports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery is significantly impacting the domestic jet fuel market dynamics. While the influx of jet fuel is expected to lower prices and temporarily increase supply stability, the long-term effects on supply stability remain to be seen as the market adjusts to this new dynamic. The increased competition from the Dangote refinery could have significant long-term implications for the U.S. refining industry, including potential shifts in production strategies and economic impacts. U.S. refiners will need to adapt to these changes to remain competitive in the global fuel market.