Jefferies Reiterates Hold Rating on American Airlines with $12.00 Price Target

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu reiterated a Hold rating on American Airlines with a price target of $12.00. The analyst has a 5-star rating and a 63.71% success rate. The current consensus on American Airlines is a Hold with an average price target of $13.27.

American Airlines (AAL) has received a mixed reaction from analysts following Jefferies' reiteration of its Hold rating and a price target of $12.00. The decision comes amidst a series of downward revisions to earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 2025.

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu maintained her Hold rating on American Airlines, despite lowering EPS estimates. The firm reduced its Q3 EPS forecast to $0.35, down from $0.24, compared to consensus estimates of $0.27 and company guidance of $0.10-$0.60. The Q4 EPS estimate was also revised down to $0.33 from $0.37, aligning closer to the midpoint of American Airlines' guidance range of $0.20-$0.80 and below the consensus estimate of $0.44. For the full year 2025, Jefferies now projects EPS of $0.35, down from $0.50 previously [1].

The downward revision reflects a decrease in total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) by 2.9% year-over-year, driven by a 0.6% decline in revenues and a 2.4% increase in available seat miles (ASMs). This trend was particularly notable in the domestic passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM), which was estimated at -4.8% compared to -4.5% previously, and in Latin America, where PRASM was estimated at -2.0% compared to -1.5% [1].

American Airlines' stock has been impacted by these revisions, trading at $13.15 as of Monday, July 2, 2025. The stock has fallen 22% this year, according to data from Fiscal.ai, with a consensus price target of $13.31 [2].

In other recent news, Raymond James downgraded American Airlines to Market Perform from Outperform, citing a more balanced risk/reward profile and favorable competitive trends seen in peer Alaska Air. The brokerage did not set a new price target but noted the stock's valuation as a reason for the downgrade [2].

Despite the mixed sentiment, American Airlines reported strong Q2 2025 earnings, exceeding EPS expectations with $0.95 compared to the forecast of $0.78. The company achieved record revenue of $14.4 billion, slightly above projections [1].

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is currently investigating the fatal collision between an American Airlines plane and a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter near Reagan Washington National Airport, which resulted in 67 fatalities. The incident has sparked criticism of the FAA's oversight and has led to an audit of the agency's airspace management [1].

References:
[1] https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/american-airlines-stock-rating-reiterated-at-hold-by-jefferies-on-lower-eps-93CH-4209254
[2] https://newsable.asianetnews.com/markets/why-is-american-airlines-stock-falling-premarket-today-articleshow-u8vogaz