Is Jefferies' Bold Buy Call on Roku Justified in a Shifting Streaming Landscape?

The streaming industry's relentless evolution has left investors grappling with a critical question: Can platforms adapt to shifting consumer preferences and advertiser demands while maintaining profitability? Jefferies' recent upgrade of Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) to "Buy" with a $135 price target-up from $100-suggests the brokerage believes Roku is uniquely positioned to thrive in this dynamic environment. This analysis evaluates the rationale behind Jefferies' bold call, focusing on Roku's strategic growth initiatives and valuation alignment with industry peers.

Strategic Growth: Monetizing the Ad-Supported Streaming Ecosystem

Roku's core strength lies in its dual role as both a hardware provider and a hybrid streaming platform. Unlike pure-play competitors like Netflix or Disney+, Roku's ad-supported model allows it to capture a growing share of the over-the-top (OTT) advertising market. According to a report by , Roku's advertising revenue grew 20% year-over-year in Q1 2025, driven by AI-powered ad targeting, the Roku Data Cloud, and shoppable TV ads. These innovations are critical in an era where advertisers seek measurable ROI, and

Jefferies highlighted Roku's platform revenue growth potential, projecting 16% and 13% year-over-year increases in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This optimism is underpinned by the company's redesigned home screen, which enhances user engagement and ad visibility, and its expanding device ecosystem. Partnerships with Philips for Roku TVs and Aurzen for smart projectors are broadening Roku's hardware footprint, ensuring continued user acquisition. Analysts at Guggenheim and J.P. Morgan have echoed these sentiments, upgrading their price targets amid confidence in Roku's execution of monetization strategies.

Cost Discipline and EBITDA Momentum

Roku's financial discipline further strengthens its case. The company has maintained stable platform gross margins near 51–52%, while operating expenses remain capped at roughly $2 billion annually. This cost structure supports multi-year double-digit revenue growth without sacrificing profitability. Jefferies raised its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA forecasts to $610 million and $845 million, respectively, reflecting confidence in Roku's ability to scale efficiently.

Valuation Metrics: A Tale of Two Perspectives

Roku's valuation presents a nuanced picture. On one hand, its enterprise value-to-sales (EV/Sales) ratio of 2.64 as of Q3 2025 is below the streaming peer average of 4.71x and the broader entertainment industry average of 1.74x. This suggests the stock is undervalued relative to direct competitors. Additionally, Roku's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.45x, while above its proprietary fair value of 2.71x, remains below the peer average of 4.71x. These metrics imply Roku is trading at a discount to its growth potential.

However, the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -108.26 and a lofty price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 11.32 highlight risks. The negative P/E reflects ongoing losses, while the PEG ratio-far exceeding the industry average of 1.89-indicates investors are paying a premium for future earnings growth. This disconnect between current profitability and forward-looking expectations could deter risk-averse investors.

Industry Positioning: Hybrid Model as a Competitive Edge

Roku's hybrid platform-combining ad-supported streaming with subscription tiers-sets it apart in a crowded market. Unlike Netflix, which relies solely on subscriptions, or pure ad-supported platforms like Pluto TV, Roku captures revenue from both avenues. This diversification is critical as advertisers increasingly shift budgets to OTT. notes that Roku's partnerships with Dentsu and strategic hires like James Kelm underscore its commitment to dominating the ad-tech space.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on Future Growth

Jefferies' "Buy" rating hinges on Roku's ability to capitalize on its hybrid model, expand its ad-tech capabilities, and maintain cost efficiency. While valuation metrics like P/S and EV/Sales suggest Roku is undervalued relative to peers, the high PEG ratio and negative P/E highlight the risks of overpaying for unproven growth. For investors with a long-term horizon, Roku's strategic initiatives and market positioning offer compelling upside, particularly in a streaming landscape where monetization remains the key differentiator.

As the industry shifts toward ad-supported models, Roku's dual focus on user engagement and advertiser value could justify Jefferies' bullish stance-provided the company executes its roadmap without missteps.