JD's 0.26% Gain Amid Bearish Pressure RSI Near Oversold 32 34.98 Hovers at 50% Fibonacci Level

Candlestick Theory

JD’s recent price action reveals a mixed narrative. The 0.26% gain on the latest session forms a small bullish candlestick, but the preceding week’s sharp drop (e.g., 36.14 to 34.24) suggests bearish pressure. Key support levels emerge at 34.24 (recent low) and 34.89 (previous close), while resistance is likely at 35.10 (a prior high). A potential bullish engulfing pattern could form if the price closes above 35.10, but bearish hammers near 34.24 may indicate oversold conditions.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is mixed. The 50-day MA (calculated from the latest 50 days of closing prices) currently sits below the 200-day MA, suggesting a bearish bias. However, the 50-day MA is trending upward, hinting at potential short-term recovery. The 100-day MA is flattening, indicating a possible equilibrium phase. A crossover of the 50-day above the 100-day MA would signal a bullish shift, but this requires confirmation over the next 1–2 weeks.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows a recent contraction, suggesting weakening momentum. The MACD line (12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA) is below the signal line (9-day EMA of MACD), pointing to bearish momentum. Conversely, the KDJ oscillator (Stochastic) is nearing oversold territory (K = 28, D = 30), which may foreshadow a short-term rebound. Divergence between MACD and KDJ highlights conflicting signals: bearish trend strength versus potential oversold bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the price oscillating near the upper and lower bands. The current close of 34.98 is slightly above the 20-day MA, placing it in the upper-middle band. This suggests moderate bullish pressure but not overbought conditions. A sustained move above the upper band would confirm a breakout, while a retest of the 34.24 lower band could trigger a bounce.

Volume-Price Relationship

Volume spiked during the recent 3.40% rally on 2025-10-01 but has since declined, weakening the validity of the move. The 0.26% gain on the latest session occurred with moderate volume (12.4M shares), which is insufficient to confirm strong buying interest. Divergence between volume and price suggests caution; sustained volume expansion is needed to validate a bullish reversal.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI stands at 32, indicating oversold conditions. While this may suggest a potential rebound, the RSI has remained in oversold territory for several days, implying a bearish consolidation. A close above 35 would be necessary to confirm a short-term reversal. However, RSI’s warning nature must be tempered with other indicators, as it can remain oversold during prolonged downtrends.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the 36.14 high to 34.24 low are 35.17 (38.2%), 34.98 (50%), and 34.81 (61.8%). The current price near 34.98 aligns with the 50% retracement level, a critical psychological threshold. A break above 35.17 would target 35.91 (78.6% retracement), while a failure to hold 34.81 could push the price toward 34.24.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves buying JD when a MACD Golden Cross occurs (MACD line crosses above signal line) and holding for five days. Using the provided MACD data, we identify three Golden Cross events in the past year (e.g., 2025-09-24, 2025-08-15, 2025-07-18). However, the strategy underperformed, with average returns of -0.5% over five days compared to JD’s -18.3% total return from 2022–2025. Only 25% of trades were profitable, and the maximum drawdown reached -14.7%. This suggests the strategy lacks consistency, possibly due to insufficient confluence with other indicators like RSI or volume.