Japan's upper house election scheduled for July 20.

Japan's upper house election scheduled for July 20.

Japan's upper house election, scheduled for July 20, is set to be a major test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's minority coalition government. The election comes at a critical time as Japan navigates complex geopolitical and economic challenges, including demands from the United States for increased defense spending.

The Trump administration has been pushing Japan and other U.S. allies to significantly boost their defense spending. Japan had been expected to participate in an annual high-level meeting with the U.S. on July 1, but the meeting was canceled after the U.S. requested Japan to increase its defense spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), a demand higher than previous expectations [1].

The U.S. has been pressing Japan and European allies to spend more on defense, with the Trump administration reportedly demanding 5% of GDP from its Asian allies [1]. However, Japan has maintained that it has never discussed such targets with the U.S., and the foreign ministry official stated that the FT report was not based on official discussions [1].

The election is expected to be a crucial test for the LDP, with regional party Tomin First no Kai poised to become the biggest force in the Tokyo assembly vote [2]. The election also coincides with ongoing trade talks with the U.S. over President Trump's worldwide tariff offensive, which has cast a shadow over upcoming Asian elections [2].

The U.S. defense industry strategy has also been affected by Japan's political uncertainty, with the Pentagon emphasizing the importance of ship repair and missile co-production plans to counter China [3]. The election results could potentially derail defense reforms at a critical time, as political chaos in Japan may hinder the implementation of necessary changes [4].

As the election approaches, Japan's political parties must avoid policy stagnation and show responsibility to address the concerns of voters [5]. The upcoming election will determine the fate of Prime Minister Ishiba and his government, with the LDP seen pursuing a 'partial' alliance with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to retain power [6].

References:
[1] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/japan-scraps-us-meeting-after-washington-demands-more-defense-spending-ft-reports/articleshow/121989827.cms
[2] https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-election
[3] https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-election
[4] https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-election
[5] https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-election
[6] https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-election