Japan's Prime Minister Resigns Amid Party Pressure, Trade Deal Completion

On September 7, the Prime Minister and the President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced their resignation during a press conference, stating that they would not seek re-election as the LDP President. Analysts believe that the resignation was driven by immense internal party pressure, aimed at preventing further division and public exposure within the party. This move, while allowing the Prime Minister to maintain a dignified exit, is expected to intensify political struggles within Japan and make the position of LDP President a "hot potato." The future of who will succeed the Prime Minister and the LDP President remains uncertain.

In recent months, the Prime Minister has faced significant pressure to step down, with rumors of their impending resignation circulating frequently. The LDP suffered consecutive losses in the July Upper House election and the October 2021 Lower House election, losing majority control in both chambers of the Diet. Key figures within the party, including former Economic Security Minister, the former Abe faction, the former Kishi faction, and several young lawmakers, demanded that the Prime Minister take responsibility for these losses.

Initially, the Prime Minister refused to resign, citing the need to avoid a political vacuum during ongoing U.S.-Japan trade negotiations. With the completion of these negotiations and the signing of a trade agreement by the U.S. government, the trade issues between the two countries were partially resolved. During the September 7 press conference, the Prime Minister cited the conclusion of the trade talks as a reason for their resignation at this time.

Previously, high-ranking LDP officials, including Secretary-General Moriyama, had chosen not to resign, opting instead to conduct a post-election review. Following the September 2 meeting of the "Two Houses Members' Assembly," which completed the review, Moriyama and others proposed their resignation or requested the Prime Minister to decide their fate, making it increasingly difficult for the Prime Minister to remain in office.

The September 2 meeting also decided to initiate the process for an early election of a new LDP President, requiring supportive LDP Diet members to submit written documents by September 8. Key figures within the party, including the leader of the remaining faction, Masuo, Justice Minister Suzuki, and several vice-ministers, publicly expressed support for an early election. Their statements significantly increased the pressure on the Prime Minister to step down.

According to statistics, by September 7, 131 LDP Diet members and 20 local organizations had called for an early election of the LDP President, nearly reaching the threshold for support. This led to a sudden change in the Prime Minister's stance, who had previously repeatedly stated their intention to continue serving.

Japanese media outlets believe that avoiding further party division was a crucial reason for the Prime Minister's decision to resign at this time. While there was strong support within the LDP for an early election, there were also many who backed the Prime Minister's continued tenure. For instance, former Minister for Overcoming Declining Birthrate, Inoue, expressed support for the Prime Minister to "complete their responsibilities and continue serving in the current difficult situation." Diet member Suzuki repeatedly endorsed the Prime Minister, criticizing senior party members for "inciting division."

Many within the LDP were concerned that if the situation progressed to the point of submitting written documents on September 8, the party's division would worsen and become public. According to reports, former Prime Minister Suga met with the Prime Minister on September 6, expressing concern over the party's division and urging the Prime Minister to make a decision about their future. During the September 7 press conference, the Prime Minister stated that a "decisive split" within the party was possible, which was not their intention, leading to their "bitter decision" to resign.

Professor Nakahara of Chuo University stated that, given the inevitability of an early election, the Prime Minister made a "wise decision" to step down gracefully, thereby avoiding further party division.

Following the Prime Minister's resignation, the LDP will elect a new President. Two individuals are likely to be the frontrunners, but analysts believe that whoever is elected will continue to face political turmoil. Previous calls for the Prime Minister's resignation came from figures such as former Economic Security Minister, the former Kishi faction leader, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Minister Kono, former Digital Minister Kono, and Cabinet Secretary-General Hayashi, all of whom competed against the Prime Minister in the previous election and may run again.

According to a recent poll, former Economic Security Minister and Kono have the highest support rates. Former Economic Security Minister is a prominent right-wing politician who lost to the Prime Minister in the final round of the previous election. Kono, the son of former Prime Minister Kono, ranked third in the first round of voting in the previous election.

However, given the LDP's current "dual minority" status in both chambers of the Diet, it is uncertain whether these frontrunners will be willing to take on the "messy situation" at this time. It is also unclear who will run and who will be elected.

According to the rules, the new LDP President must be elected by the Diet to become Prime Minister. Due to the LDP's "dual minority" status, there is some risk that the new President may not be smoothly elected as Prime Minister. However, as the largest party in both chambers, the LDP can still secure more than half of the votes in the Prime Minister's designation election by aligning with its ruling coalition partners and courting some smaller parties. Additionally, the opposition parties are deeply divided and unable to form a stable alliance.

Even if the new LDP President is successfully elected as Prime Minister, they will continue to face political turmoil. Pushing policies forward in a "dual minority" situation will be challenging, particularly with two major issues to address. First, regaining a majority in the Lower House will not be easy. Polls show that the public is dissatisfied with the LDP's handling of the "black money" scandal. Moreover, many voters believe that the Prime Minister did not need to resign, and the LDP's infighting, which forced the Prime Minister to step down, will further damage the party's image.

Second, the aftermath of the U.S.-Japan trade dispute remains unsettled. According to the Japan Comprehensive Research Institute, the implementation of the U.S.-Japan trade agreement still has uncertainties in areas such as investment, and Japan will need to continue negotiations with the U.S. to secure a more favorable outcome.