Japan's Century-Long ETF Unwinding and Market Resilience

The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) historic decision to unwind its ¥37.1 trillion ETF portfolio over a century represents a pivotal shift in monetary policy normalization. While the sheer scale of this divestment has initially rattled markets, the BOJ's deliberate, phased approach-selling ¥330 billion annually at book value-ensures minimal short-term disruption. This strategy, combined with Japan's accelerating corporate buyback momentum and governance reforms, creates a compelling case for foreign investors to deepen exposure to undervalued Japanese equities.

The BOJ's Controlled Sell-Off: A Model of Prudence

The BOJ's ETF unwinding is designed to avoid the volatility seen during past large-scale interventions. By selling at a pace of just 0.9% of its holdings annually, the central bank aims to maintain market stability while gradually reducing its influence on equity prices. According to a report by , this approach mirrors the BOJ's 2000s sell-off of troubled bank stocks, which concluded over a decade without triggering market turmoil. The BOJ's emphasis on "flexibility" and "stability" underscores its commitment to balancing policy normalization with investor confidence.

Despite the symbolic significance of the announcement, the BOJ has stressed that the unwinding will not have a "material market impact in the short term" according to a recent analysis. This is supported by the fact that its ETF holdings constitute only 7% of Japan's total market capitalization as reported by CETEX.

The gradual sell-off also allows the BOJ to adjust its pace in response to political and economic developments, such as Japan's leadership transition in 2025 as indicated by market commentary.

Corporate Buyback Momentum: A Tailwind for Equities

While the BOJ's exit may reduce artificial demand for equities, Japan's corporate sector is stepping in to fill the void. Share buybacks and dividend growth have surged in 2025, driven by Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) initiatives and regulatory pressure. As stated by , the TSE's 2023 call for "management conscious of cost of capital and stock price" has led to a record 90% of Prime Market companies responding to its shareholder value guidelines. Over 60% of these firms have updated their disclosures, reflecting a cultural shift toward capital efficiency and transparency.

This momentum is particularly pronounced during the October–November earnings season, when companies announce large-scale buybacks. By 2025, Japanese corporations accounted for a substantial net buying volume in the stock market, tightening the supply-demand balance and supporting equity prices as documented in market analysis. These actions are bolstered by the Financial Services Agency's (FSA) push to address corporate cash hoarding, ensuring companies allocate resources to shareholders rather than idle balances according to market reports.

Governance Reforms: Building a Merit-Based Market

Japan's corporate governance reforms have further enhanced market resilience. Over the past decade, Japanese firms have outpaced global peers in earnings-per-share (EPS) growth and dividend payouts, more than doubling their distributions. This transformation reflects a structural shift toward shareholder-centric governance, with companies prioritizing ROE and capital returns as noted in WisdomTree analysis.

The TSE's initiatives have also reduced cross-shareholdings, a legacy of Japan's opaque corporate structure according to J.P. Morgan insights. By encouraging firms to focus on fundamentals rather than cross-ownership, these reforms have improved transparency and reduced deadweight capital. As noted by , Japan's corporate sector is now a "leadership opportunity" for investors seeking sustainable growth and income.

A Low-Risk Environment for Foreign Investors

For foreign investors, the confluence of these factors creates a unique opportunity. The BOJ's gradual sell-off ensures that market volatility remains contained, while corporate buybacks and governance reforms provide a floor for equity prices. Large-cap firms with strong fundamentals and attractive dividend policies are likely to thrive in this environment, whereas weaker companies will face increased scrutiny as highlighted in market commentary.

Moreover, Japan's equity market has regained global attention, with the MSCI Japan Index delivering an 8.1% annualized return over the past decade according to J.P. Morgan analysis. This resilience, coupled with the BOJ's controlled unwinding, positions Japan as a low-risk, high-conviction investment.

Conclusion

The BOJ's century-long ETF unwinding is not a threat but a catalyst for Japan's equity market evolution. By combining prudence in policy normalization with corporate discipline and governance reforms, Japan is creating a market environment where fundamentals-not artificial stimulus-drive value. For foreign investors, this represents a rare window to access undervalued equities with downside protection and long-term growth potential.