Jamf Holding (JAMF): Security Growth and Undervalued Potential Amid Market Headwinds

The tech sector is rife with companies chasing growth, but few are repositioning as strategically as Jamf Holding (JAMF). Once a niche player in Apple device management, the company has pivoted decisively toward cybersecurity, with its security-focused Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) now accounting for 25% of total ARR—a figure that has grown by 17% year-over-year. Yet, despite this strategic progress, the stock trades at a deeply discounted valuation, offering investors a compelling entry point as security demand accelerates.

Security as the New Growth Engine

Jamf's acquisition of Identity Automation in April 2025 marked a critical step in its security pivot. This move bolstered its identity and access management (IAM) capabilities, particularly in education and healthcare markets—verticals where institutions are increasingly prioritizing cybersecurity. The deal added $162 million to Jamf's security ARR in Q1 2025, now representing a quarter of total ARR. This segment's growth rate of 17% outpaces the company's overall revenue growth of 10%, signaling that security is becoming the primary driver of value creation.

The company's Security 360 Report, released in June 2025, further highlights its leadership in Apple ecosystem security. By integrating dynamic access controls and threat intelligence into its platform, Jamf is positioning itself as a critical partner for enterprises and educational institutions seeking to mitigate rising cybersecurity risks.

Valuation: A Discounted Multiple Reflects Pessimism, Not Reality

Jamf's stock has faced headwinds tied to macroeconomic concerns, including USD strength and trade policy uncertainties, which have dragged down its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to 1.63x as of June 2025—well below its historical peak of 10.48x in 2022 and industry peers like Blackbaud (P/S 2.9x) and CommVault (P/S 7.4x).

Analysts project only 10.5% revenue growth for 2025, which falls short of the sector's 16% average, but this outlook overlooks the outsized potential of security. With security ARR growing 70% faster than overall revenue, the market is mispricing the long-term value of Jamf's strategic shift.

Risks to Consider

• Slowing Global IT Spending: Macroeconomic pressures, such as a potential recession, could dampen demand for enterprise software.
• Competitive Pressures: Rivals like Microsoft (with its Microsoft Intune) and CrowdStrike are expanding into Apple management, intensifying competition.
• Execution Risks: Integrating Identity Automation's technology seamlessly into Jamf's platform requires flawless execution.

However, these risks are offset by Jamf's low valuation floor. At a P/S of 1.63x, the stock offers a margin of safety even if growth misses modestly.

The Investment Case: Buying the Dip in a Security Leader

Jamf's valuation is now so compressed that it reflects a worst-case scenario for its business. At current levels, the stock trades at a 35% discount to its sector peers, despite its niche leadership in Apple-centric cybersecurity—a market expected to grow 12% annually through 2027.

Key Catalysts for a Revaluation:
1. Security ARR Crosses 30% of Total ARR: A milestone that would validate the strategic pivot.
2. New Product Launches: Upcoming features like Jamf for K-12 Security could drive further adoption in education.
3. Sector Consolidation: A potential acquisition or partnership to expand its cybersecurity offerings.

Final Take

Jamf Holding is a contrarian play in a crowded tech landscape. While near-term risks like macroeconomic headwinds and competitive threats are valid, the stock's valuation leaves little room for disappointment. With security growth outpacing the rest of its business and a P/S ratio at multiyear lows, investors willing to look past short-term volatility could profit handsomely as the market catches up to Jamf's transformation.

Recommendation: Buy on dips below $9.50, with a 12-month price target of $12–$14 (implying P/S expansion to 2.0x). Monitor security ARR updates and macroeconomic trends closely.

This analysis balances near-term challenges with long-term potential, making Jamf a compelling pick for investors seeking a leveraged position in the cybersecurity boom.