Jabil Surges 4.8% on $1B Debt Refinance—Is This the Start of a Bullish Run?

Summary
• Jabil (JBL) hits 52-week high of $254.22 amid $1B senior notes offering
• Analysts raise price targets, with BofA and UBS projecting $280 and $244, respectively
• Intelligent Infrastructure revenue jumps 54% YoY to $3.84B, outperforming estimates

Jabil’s stock surged 4.8% to $252.97, trading between $243.61 and $254.22, as the company announced a $1B debt refinancing plan. The move aligns with strong Q1 results and analyst optimism around AI-driven growth. With institutional ownership at 93.4%, the rally reflects confidence in Jabil’s strategic debt management and expanding AI infrastructure capabilities.

Debt Refinance Sparks Jabil's 4.8% Surge
Jabil’s stock rallied on the announcement of a $1B senior notes offering, priced at 4.200% for 2029 and 4.750% for 2033, to refinance its 1.700% 2026 debt. This refinancing extends maturities and aligns with the company’s Q1 outperformance, including $8.3B revenue and $2.85 EPS. Analysts highlighted the move as a prudent step to manage liquidity in a high-interest-rate environment, with UBS and BofA raising price targets to $244 and $280, respectively. The offering also funds Jabil’s $725M Hanley Energy acquisition, enhancing its power management capabilities for data centers.

Electronic Equipment Sector Rally: Jabil Outpaces FLEX as Debt Strategy Gains Traction
The Electronic Equipment sector saw mixed momentum, with Jabil outperforming sector leader Flex (FLEX), which rose 4.12%. Jabil’s debt refinancing and AI infrastructure growth contrast with Flex’s broader manufacturing exposure. The sector’s 0.68% S&P 500 gain underscores investor focus on AI-driven supply chains, with Jabil’s 54% YoY Intelligent Infrastructure growth outpacing peers. However, manufacturing contraction in December signals sector-wide challenges.

Options Playbook: Capitalize on Jabil’s Bullish Momentum with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200D MA: $199.23 (well below current price)
• RSI: 55.0 (neutral, not overbought)
• MACD: 4.00 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 244.86 (upper band), 228.67 (middle), 212.49 (lower)

Jabil’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key support at $226.11 and resistance at $244.86. The 54.99 RSI and 4.00 MACD indicate momentum remains intact. For options, focus on gamma-driven calls with high leverage and liquidity. Two top picks from the chain are:

• JBL20260220C250
- Strike: $250, Expiry: 2026-02-20
- IV: 42.41% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.567 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.319 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0115 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $2.0M (liquid)
- Leverage: 16.50% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $16.58 per contract
- This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a continuation of the current rally.

• JBL20260220C260
- Strike: $260, Expiry: 2026-02-20
- IV: 40.68% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.448 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.286 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0121 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $50.9K (liquid)
- Leverage: 24.73% (high)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $24.73 per contract
- This call provides higher leverage for aggressive bulls, with gamma and theta favoring a sharp move.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider JBL20260220C260 into a breakout above $254.22, while conservative traders can target JBL20260220C250 for a measured advance.

Backtest Jabil Stock Performance
The backtest of JBL's performance following a 5% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows a significant strategy return of 220.77%, vastly outperforming the benchmark return of 42.97%. The strategy achieved an excess return of 177.80% and a CAGR of 34.58%, indicating substantial growth during the period. However, it came with higher volatility, a maximum drawdown of 38.09%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.93, suggesting that while the strategy delivered strong returns, it also carried considerable risk.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Fade—Position for Jabil's Next Move as FLEX Gains 4.12%
Jabil’s 4.8% surge on its $1B debt refinancing and AI infrastructure growth suggests a sustainable bullish trend. With RSI at 55.0 and MACD divergence intact, the stock is poised to test its 52-week high of $254.22. Investors should monitor the 200D MA at $199.23 as a critical support level. Meanwhile, sector leader Flex (FLEX) gained 4.12%, signaling broader confidence in manufacturing resilience. Act now: Buy JBL20260220C260 for a high-leverage play on a breakout above $254.22, or hold for a retest of $243.61 support.