Jabil Plunges 4.76% Amid AI Infrastructure Optimism: Can This Bull Case Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• Jabil Inc. (JBL) trades at $218.25, down 4.76% from its July 24 open of $226.12
• Options volatility surges with 2025-08-15 210 put options seeing 426 contracts traded
• Company announces $1B buyback and AI infrastructure partnership with Endeavour Energy
• Intraday swing spans $226.91 high to $212.40 low, reflecting sharp selloff despite AI-driven growth narrative. This volatility underscores the tension between bullish AI infrastructure positioning and near-term execution risks in a high-growth stock.

AI Infrastructure Optimism Meets Profit-Taking Pressure
Jabil's 4.76% intraday selloff reflects a confluence of factors. While the company's $1B buyback and AI infrastructure partnership with Endeavour Energy reinforce its positioning in high-growth sectors, the move coincides with profit-taking after a 53.5% year-to-date rally against a 9.8% sector average. Technical indicators show the stock trading near its 30-day moving average of $211.27, with Bollinger Bands tightening as volatility peaks. The selloff appears more a correction in a strong uptrend than a fundamental re-rating, as JBL remains above its 200-day average of $154.93 and maintains a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) designation.

Communication Equipment Sector Volatility as JBL Trails Sector Leaders
JBL's 4.76% decline contrasts with the Communication Equipment sector's mixed performance. Sector leader Cisco Systems (CSCO) trades down 0.56%, while the broader Zacks Communication Equipment Group remains in the top quartile of sector rankings. JBL's Intelligent Infrastructure segment growth story (40% revenue contribution) positions it differently from traditional sector peers, but the recent pullback aligns with broader market caution about AI infrastructure execution risks. The stock's 52-week range of $95.85 to $229.16 suggests the correction remains within historical bounds.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on JBL's Volatility Regime
• 30-day moving average: $211.27 (near current price)
• 200-day average: $154.93 (strong support)
• RSI: 61.67 (neutral territory)
• MACD: 8.58 (bullish divergence from signal line at 10.00)
• Bollinger Bands: $228.28 (upper), $213.52 (lower) – price near lower band
• Implied volatility: 31.54% for 210 puts (moderate)
• Volume: 979,882 shares (93.7% of float turnover)

With JBL testing key support levels, the most compelling options positions emerge from volatility spreads. Two top options from the chain:

• JBL20250815P210 (Put):
- Strike: $210
- Expiration: 2025-08-15
- Delta: -0.2985
- IV: 31.54%
- Gamma: 0.0201
- Turnover: $173,961
- LVR: 64.03%
- Theta: -0.0032
- Price change: 142.86%
This contract offers attractive leverage (64% LVR) with moderate delta, ideal for capitalizing on a potential breakdown below $213.52 (lower Bollinger Band). The high turnover suggests liquidity, and the 142.86% price change ratio indicates strong demand.

• JBL20250919P210 (Put):
- Strike: $210
- Expiration: 2025-09-19
- Delta: -0.3576
- IV: 36.87%
- Gamma: 0.0117
- Turnover: $18,642
- LVR: 25.76%
- Theta: -0.0394
- Price change: 92.05%
The longer-dated 210 put offers more time decay (theta of -0.0394) and higher implied volatility (36.87%) than its August counterpart. While turnover is lower, the 92.05% price change ratio suggests strong positioning for a deeper correction.

Payoff analysis under a 5% downside scenario (targeting $207.33):
- JBL20250815P210: Max profit of $2.65 per contract ($265 for 100 shares)
- JBL20250919P210: Max profit of $2.67 per contract ($267 for 100 shares)

Aggressive bulls may consider JBL20250815C200 (Call) for a short-term bounce play, given its 0.847 delta and 10.97% leverage ratio. However, the 31.69% price change ratio indicates waning call demand.

Backtest Jabil Stock Performance
The backtest of JBL's performance after an intraday plunge of -5% shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 58.55%, the 10-Day win rate is 62.61%, and the 30-Day win rate is 68.96%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 11.01%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that JBL has a tendency to recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels in the short to medium term.

Key Resistance at $220.90: Position for AI Infrastructure Catalysts
JBL's selloff creates a tactical entry point for investors aligned with its AI infrastructure growth story. The stock must reclaim $220.90 (30-day SMA) to confirm bullish momentum, with a breakout above $226.91 (intraday high) signaling renewed conviction. With $1B in buybacks and a $7.5-8.5B AI revenue forecast for FY2025, the fundamentals remain intact. Sector leaders like Cisco (-0.56%) highlight the broader sector's mixed sentiment, but JBL's unique positioning in AI hardware manufacturing provides asymmetric upside. Watch for $210 support hold – a breakdown would trigger deeper technical selling, but a rebound above $213.52 could reignite the bull case. Position now for the August 15 options expiration cycle.