Jabil Plunges 3.91% as Bearish Signals Converge at Key 235 Resistance

Candlestick Theory
Jabil's most recent session (-3.91%, close: $225.28) formed a bearish closing black marubozu, indicating strong selling pressure as the price rejected the $235 resistance level. This follows a harami pattern on 2025-09-23 (small green candle within the prior session's range), suggesting indecision before the breakdown. Key support now resides at the $219.86 swing low (2025-09-19), while the $232-235 zone acts as immediate resistance. The long upper wick on 2025-09-24 reinforces supply pressure near $235.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approx. $217) provided dynamic support during mid-September's advance, but the recent close near $225 tests this level. Price remains above the 100-day MA (~$210) and 200-day MA (~$185), confirming the longer-term uptrend. However, the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day MAs warns of potential trend weakness. A sustained break below the 50-day MA may trigger accelerated selling toward the 100-day MA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) flipped into negative territory during the latest sell-off, with the histogram expanding downward – signaling strengthening bearish momentum. KDJ shows the %K line (17) crossing below %D (31) from overbought territory (>80 on 2025-09-23), validating bearish reversal conditions. Both oscillators concur that momentum has shifted downward, though not yet at oversold extremes.
Bollinger Bands
Price breached the lower Bollinger Band ($228) during the 2025-09-24 session, typically indicating oversold conditions. However, this occurred during expanding volatility (band width increased 15% week-over-week), suggesting continuation rather than mean reversion. The close below the lower band, combined with high volume, implies further downside potential. A contraction in bands would be needed to signal exhaustion.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakdown was validated by elevated volume (2.57M shares vs. 30-day avg: 1.85M), confirming distribution. Prior rallies (e.g., 2025-09-18: +4.52% on 2.75M shares) saw volume support, while the current high-volume decline indicates institutional selling. Volume divergence occurred on 2025-09-23 (0.52% gain on below-average volume), foreshadowing weakness.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI plunged from 67 to 42 during the sell-off, exiting neutral territory but not yet oversold. Notably, RSI formed a bearish divergence in late September – price reached higher highs (237.14 vs. 233.23), while RSI peaked lower (67 vs. 71). This warning signal preceded the current correction. The 42 reading suggests room for further downside before reaching oversold (<30) conditions.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the upswing from $185 (2025-06-17 low) to $237.14 (2025-09-23 high):
- 23.6%: $217.20 (confluence with 50-day MA)
- 38.2%: $211.10 (volume gap support near 2025-09-18 low)
- 50%: $206.60
The $217-$211 zone represents critical support, aligning with the 50-day MA and prior consolidation. A breach below 38.2% would target the 50% retracement.
Confluence & Divergence
Significant bearish confluence exists between: MACD negative crossover, KDJ bear cross, volume-confirmed breakdown, and RSI divergence. The $217 zone offers multi-indicator support (50-day MA + Fib 23.6% + prior swing low). Primary divergence remains the long-term moving averages (price >100-day >200-day), suggesting the uptrend is intact despite near-term weakness. Probable near-term action involves testing $217 support, with a breakdown risking acceleration toward $211. Upside requires reclaiming $232 to invalidate the bearish structure.