Ivory Coast's Investment Crossroads: Navigating Political Uncertainty and Economic Potential in Infrastructure and Commodity Markets

Ivory Coast stands at a pivotal juncture in 2025, balancing the promise of economic growth with the shadows of political controversy. As the nation prepares for a presidential election that could extend Alassane Ouattara's rule to nearly two decades, investors face a complex calculus. On one hand, the government has prioritized infrastructure development and commodity-driven economic strategies, fueling optimism. On the other, concerns over electoral fairness and democratic credibility linger, creating a mixed investment climate. This analysis explores how these dynamics shape opportunities in infrastructure and commodity-linked sectors, while highlighting risks that demand careful navigation.

Political Stability: A Double-Edged Sword

President Ouattara's tenure has been marked by robust economic growth, with real GDP expanding at an average of 8.2% between 2012 and 2019, according to a DW report. His administration's Infrastructure Renewal and Urban Management Project (PRICI) has revitalized roads, water systems, and public buildings in key regions like Daloa, a hub for agriculture. However, the political landscape is fraught. The exclusion of prominent opposition figures, including former President Laurent Gbagbo and ex-prime minister Guillaume Soro, has drawn sharp criticism, according to an AP News report. The government's deployment of 44,000 security personnel and a ban on protests to ensure electoral order further underscore tensions, DW notes.

For investors, this duality creates a paradox: Ouattara's continuity could offer policy predictability, but the erosion of democratic norms risks long-term instability. As noted by a DW report, the election's outcome will be a litmus test for Ivory Coast's commitment to democratic principles.

Infrastructure: A Pillar of Growth

Infrastructure remains a cornerstone of Ivory Coast's economic strategy. Beyond PRICI, the government has pledged to construct a highway connecting Daloa to the capital, Yamoussoukro, enhancing regional connectivity. These projects align with Ouattara's vision for 2025–2030, which emphasizes improved living conditions and economic diversification. Yet challenges persist. Only 25% of secondary roads are paved, limiting rural access and constraining agricultural productivity.

The World Bank attributes much of Ivory Coast's post-civil war growth to infrastructure investments, but it also cautions that uneven development-particularly in rural areas-could exacerbate inequality. For construction and agriculture-linked investors, this means opportunities exist, but they must be paired with strategies to address systemic gaps.

Commodity Markets: Cocoa and the Rise of Mining

Ivory Coast's economy has long been anchored by cocoa, which accounts for nearly 40% of its export earnings. However, the mining sector is emerging as a new growth engine. Gold production, for instance, has surged from 10 tonnes in 2012 to 58 tonnes in 2024, with projections of 62 tonnes in 2025, according to Discovery Alert. The government has granted 11 new exploration permits, including eight for gold and three for strategic minerals like nickel and cobalt, positioning the country as a player in the global energy transition.

This diversification is strategic. As Discovery Alert highlights, Ivory Coast's mining sector now contributes 4% to GDP, up from 1.5% a decade ago. The Lafigué gold mine, operated by Endeavour Mining, exemplifies this shift, combining advanced technology with environmental safeguards. For investors, the sector's expansion offers exposure to critical minerals while benefiting from Ivory Coast's relative stability compared to neighbors like Mali and Burkina Faso, where political turmoil has disrupted mining operations.

Risks and Considerations

While the mining and infrastructure sectors present compelling opportunities, investors must remain vigilant. Political instability, even if currently mitigated by security measures, could resurface. Additionally, 37.5% of the population lives in poverty, and youth unemployment remains a ticking time bomb. Social unrest linked to these issues could disrupt projects and deter long-term commitments.

Conclusion: A Calculated Path Forward

Ivory Coast's investment landscape in 2025 is defined by contrasts. The government's infrastructure and mining initiatives offer tangible growth prospects, yet political uncertainties cast a long shadow. For investors, the key lies in balancing optimism with caution. Those willing to navigate the complexities-monitoring electoral outcomes, engaging with local stakeholders, and diversifying across sectors-may find fertile ground in Ivory Coast's evolving economy.