Ivory Coast Cocoa Mid-Crop: A Perfect Storm of Risk and Reward

The world’s cocoa market is teetering on a knife’s edge. With Ivory Coast—the globe’s largest cocoa producer—facing a precarious mid-crop harvest in August-September 2025, investors are primed to capitalize on supply disruptions fueled by erratic rainfall. Below-average precipitation in key growing regions, coupled with regional yield disparities, sets the stage for price volatility. This is not just a weather story; it’s a strategic opportunity to position for a cocoa price spike—and a long-term climate-driven investment thesis.

The Mid-Crop Crisis: Rainfall, Regions, and Risks

The mid-crop, harvested between April and September, accounts for roughly 30% of Ivory Coast’s annual cocoa output. This year, the stakes are heightened: below-average rainfall in critical regions has already triggered warnings of a supply shortfall.

• Soubre (Western Region): Benefited from above-average rainfall in late April, with 12.6mm recorded—0.7mm over the five-year norm. Farmers report well-developed pods and optimism for a “long and abundant” harvest, with gradual supply starting in May.
• Daloa (Central-Western Region): Suffered severe deficits, with rainfall at 14.1mm—7.5mm below average—leading to fears of a “shortened mid-crop” with smaller, lower-quality beans. Farmers warn of a supply crunch from July to mid-August.

The regional divide is stark. While Soubre’s rains bode well, Daloa’s dryness—and its central role in mid-crop production—threatens to offset gains. Compounding risks: rising temperatures (27.6–33.4°C) stress crops, and delayed rains post-May could exacerbate deficits.

Why This Matters for Investors

The mid-crop’s success hinges on heavy rains through late April, but the window is narrowing. A shortfall would tighten global cocoa supplies, pushing prices higher. Historical data shows cocoa futures spike by 10–20% during prior mid-crop disruptions.

Immediate Opportunities

1. Long-Dated Cocoa Contracts: Position in ICE Futures US cocoa contracts expiring in late 2025 or 2026. A supply deficit could trigger a rally akin to 2021, when prices surged 30% in six months.
2. Ivory Coast-Exposed Companies:
3. Olam International (OLAM.SI): A major cocoa supplier with deep Ivory Coast ties.
4. Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW): The world’s largest chocolate processor, benefiting from premium pricing in tight markets.
5. Local Agribusinesses: Firms like Société Ivoirienne de Cacao (SIC), which could gain from government support during a crisis.

Risks to Avoid

• Overreliance on Near-Term Forecasts: Weather models are probabilistic. A sudden rain surge in May could ease supply fears, but don’t bet on it.
• Short-Term Cocoa Shorts: The risk of a false rally is high if traders misread regional data. Stick to long positions with a 6–12-month horizon.

The Long Game: Climate Sensitivity in Cocoa Investing

The mid-crop crisis is a microcosm of a broader trend: climate volatility is reshaping cocoa markets. Ivory Coast’s reliance on rainfall—80% of cocoa farms lack irrigation—makes it a climate “canary in the coal mine.” Investors should:
1. Prioritize Climate-Resilient Producers: Back companies adopting drought-resistant crops or sustainable practices.
2. Monitor Satellite Rainfall Data: Tools like NASA’s GPM mission or Climate Engine provide real-time insights into regional moisture levels.
3. Hedge with Cocoa ETFs: The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN (NIB) offers exposure to price swings without futures expiration risks.

Conclusion: Act Now, Think Long

The 2025 mid-crop is a high-stakes gamble. Below-average rainfall in Daloa and other key regions could tip the market into deficit mode, driving cocoa prices to multiyear highs. Investors who act swiftly—by taking long positions in futures or equity stakes in Ivory Coast-linked firms—will capture the upside.

But this is more than a seasonal trade. Climate change is making Ivory Coast’s cocoa fields increasingly fragile. Those who recognize this and build climate-aware portfolios today will be positioned to profit not just from this harvest, but from the next wave of sustainability-driven demand.

The clock is ticking. The rains may fall—or they may not. Your move.