ITUB Shares Plunge 3.81% as Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish Trend Amid Key Support Tests

Itau Unibanco Pref ADR (ITUB) Technical Analysis
Itau Unibanco Pref ADR (ITUB) closed at $8.59 on January 30, 2026, marking a 3.81% decline in the most recent session. This drop aligns with broader bearish momentum observed in the preceding weeks, where the stock tested key support levels amid mixed technical signals. Below is a structured technical evaluation of its price action and indicators.

Candlestick Theory

Recent candlestick patterns suggest bearish exhaustion and potential short-term reversals. A long-bodied bearish candle on January 30, closing near the session low, indicates strong selling pressure. Key support levels are identified at $7.35–$7.40, where prior consolidation and failed rallies occurred in mid-January 2026. Resistance clusters near $8.90–$9.10 (January 29–30 highs) show repeated rejection, suggesting these levels may act as ceilings in the near term. A bullish engulfing pattern on January 27 (up 4.65%) hinted at a temporary rebound, but subsequent weakness suggests buyers are struggling to sustain momentum above $8.70.

Moving Average Theory
Short-term moving averages (50-day at ~$7.65) are below long-term averages (100-day at ~$7.45, 200-day at ~$7.30), confirming a bearish trend. The 50-day MA crossing below the 100-day MA in late December 2025 reinforced this downtrend. However, a potential confluence of the 50-day and 100-day MAs near $7.50 may act as a dynamic support zone. If the price retests this area with rising volume, a short-term bounce could occur, but a break below the 200-day MA would signal deeper bearish bias.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line (-0.12) crossed below the signal line (-0.05) in early February 2026, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram’s contraction suggests weakening bearish momentum, though the negative divergence between price and MACD in late January hints at potential reversals. Meanwhile, the KDJ indicator (K: 15, D: 25, J: 10) indicates oversold territory, with J falling below 10—a potential early sign of a rebound. However, the K line’s failure to cross above D suggests caution, as bearish momentum remains dominant.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the bands widening to ~$1.30 (range of $7.30–$8.60). The price closed near the lower band on January 30, a classic oversold signal. Historical contractions in early December 2025 preceded a breakout attempt, but the current wide bands suggest traders should anticipate a directional move rather than consolidation. A sustained close above the upper band ($8.60) could trigger a short-term rally, while a break below $7.30 would signal further downside.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked on January 30 (41.98 million shares) during the 3.81% decline, validating the bearish move. However, volume has been declining since late January, indicating weakening conviction in the downtrend. A surge in volume during a rebound above $8.50 would strengthen bullish validity, whereas muted volume during rallies suggests lack of buyer participation.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at 28, signaling oversold conditions. This aligns with the KDJ’s oversold reading, suggesting a potential bounce. However, RSI divergence—where price lows are lower than RSI lows—hints at lingering bearish pressure. A close above 30 would not confirm a reversal but could spark short-covering. A subsequent move above 40 would be necessary to suggest a trend shift.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the December 2025 low ($6.10) to the January 2026 high ($9.10) include 38.2% at $7.50, 50% at $7.60, and 61.8% at $7.75. The current price near $8.60 is above the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential retest of the 50% level ($7.60) as a critical support. A breakdown below $7.50 would target the 38.2% level, with the 61.8% retracement acting as a potential short-term floor.

Conclusion
Confluence between oversold RSI, KDJ, and Bollinger Bands near $7.30–$7.40 suggests a high probability of a short-term bounce. However, bearish divergence in MACD and weak volume during rallies indicate that buyers remain hesitant. Traders should monitor the 50-day MA ($7.65) as a dynamic support; a sustained break above this level could initiate a countertrend rally, while a close below $7.30 would confirm deeper bearish bias. Positioning for volatility is prudent, with tight stop-loss orders near key Fibonacci levels.