Israel Claims Years-Long Setback to Iran's Nuclear Program After Airstrikes

On June 25, the Israeli military launched "Operation Rising Lion," targeting Iran's nuclear capabilities. Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee claimed that the operation had set back Iran’s nuclear program by years. This assertion was supported by IDF officials, including Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. However, a U.S. intelligence assessment presented a contrasting view, suggesting that the delay might only be a matter of months. The conflicting reports have left Iran’s nuclear timeline shrouded in uncertainty, with satellite images and classified reports offering mixed views on the extent of the damage.

Israel maintains that the airstrikes were precise and effective, but Iran disputes these claims. The geopolitical tensions arising from these events have had a significant impact on global oil prices and stock markets. The conflicting narratives have sparked a debate over the true extent of the delay in Iran’s nuclear program, with analysts and officials offering varying assessments of the operation's success.

According to IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin, all objectives of "Operation Rising Lion" were met, and the impact on Iran’s nuclear capabilities was significant. However, he acknowledged that it was too early to determine the full extent of the damage. Lt. Gen. Zamir also stated that the operation had set back Iran’s missile program by years. In contrast, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) reported that the setback could last only one to two months, citing satellite data that suggested Iran might restart uranium enrichment within months. One U.S. official even suggested that the extent of the damage remained unclear, particularly in deep underground facilities like Fordow, which showed signs of external destruction but not collapse. Iran may be able to rebuild power and water lines faster than expected, further complicating the assessment of the operation's impact.

Within the U.S. administration, there is a deep disagreement over the success of the operation. President Trump claimed that the strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites, a view supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who called the bombings a complete success. However, multiple anonymous officials disagreed, highlighting that Iran’s highly enriched uranium stocks remain intact and that centrifuges were reportedly unaffected at some locations. Analysts pointed out that imagery cannot reveal damage deep below the surface, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the operation's true impact.

David Albright, a former U.N. inspector, observed visible damage through commercial satellite images but warned that Iran’s breakout capability still exists. Some Democrats in Congress, including Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, said they had seen no evidence of total obliteration. Scheduled briefings were also canceled, adding more uncertainty to the situation. This internal divide within the U.S. administration only raises more questions about what the operation truly achieved and the extent of the delay in Iran’s nuclear program.

The conflict’s effects extend far beyond military zones, impacting global oil supply and markets. The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic flashpoint, sees around 20% of global oil flows pass through it. India, which imports 90% of its oil, is especially exposed, as 40% of its crude passes through the Strait. Disruptions in this region could create major logistical issues for oil-importing nations. Prices may touch $85 per barrel, well above the long-term average. Freight rates have also surged, with the Chinese crude oil Tanker Freight Index climbing, signaling stress in the maritime industry. Maritime insurance premiums have jumped, and global shipping faces a wave of volatility. India and other importing nations remain cautious, watching the geopolitical shifts unfold.

Outside the Middle East, the conflict has caused subtle but visible economic ripples. The Bank of Thailand is trying to keep interest rates steady amid these political shifts. Thailand’s economic growth slowed to 3.1%, and a sharp decline in markets continued. A wider economic impact looms if oil prices keep rising. Energy-dependent nations, especially in Asia, may suffer inflationary pressure. For now, governments are taking a wait-and-see approach. The true economic cost will depend on the conflict’s duration and Iran’s next steps.

Operation Rising Lion has generated bold claims and intense debate. Israel insists it dealt a severe blow to Iran’s nuclear progress. The United States, despite official confidence, shows signs of internal disagreement. Experts outside the government suggest Iran’s capabilities were hurt but not destroyed. Meanwhile, oil markets, especially in India, feel the early consequences. Thailand’s economic stance hints at broader anxiety. As assessments evolve and realities surface, the world watches to see whether this nuclear delay becomes fact or fades into political messaging.