Iron Ore Prices Expected to Decline Amidst Constrained Demand and Rising Supply

Iron ore prices are expected to peak in 2026 at $95/ton, according to a new study from BMI. However, analysts warn of long-term headwinds due to rising seaborne supply, macroeconomic pressures in China, and a structural shift toward less steel-intensive sectors. China's iron ore consumption is expected to peak before the end of the decade, and prices are forecast to fall to $78/ton by 2034. Major producers, including Vale SA, have adopted a cautious approach, with Vale reducing its 2026 production forecast and investing in copper.