Irish PM Harris: Narrow Margin in Exit Poll, Coalition Uncertainty Looms

The Irish general election is set to conclude with a photo finish, according to an exit poll released just after polls closed on Friday. The three largest parties – Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Sinn Féin – are neck and neck in their share of the vote, with the incumbent Fine Gael leader Simon Harris nearly tied with Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald at around 21% each.

The exit poll, conducted by Ipsos B&A for The Irish Times, RTÉ, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin, suggests that the race for government formation will be a complex one. With both Harris and McDonald at the helm of their respective parties, the likelihood of a coalition involving either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael is high. However, the tight race and the absence of a clear majority for any one party may result in protracted negotiations.

Simon Harris and Mary Lou McDonald

The exit poll reveals that the Green Party has 4% support, Labour has 5%, the Social Democrats have 5.8%, Solidarity-People Before Profit has 3.1%, Aontú has 3.6%, Independents/others have 14.6%, and Independent Ireland has 2.2%. The slim margins between the larger parties and the significant support for Independents and smaller parties suggest that coalition talks may be challenging.



As the new Dáil is not due to meet until December 18th, it seems there is little likelihood of a new government until well into the new year. The exit poll offers no clarity about which of the smaller parties or Independents might help the two big parties to make up the numbers to form a stable majority in the Dáil. Government formation may be strongly influenced by whether Labour, the Green Party, the Social Democrats, and perhaps some left-leaning Independents carry through on suggestions to agree a common red-green platform before any coalition talks with the big parties.

The tight race between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin underscores the importance of the upcoming election in shaping the political landscape of Ireland. As the results continue to roll in, investors and political observers alike will be watching closely to see how the parties maneuver in the aftermath of this closely contested election.