IREN Surges 17.7% to 52-Week High: A Viral SOTP Thesis and Bitcoin’s Rally Ignite Frenzy

Summary
• IREN surges 17.7% to $19.31, hitting an intraday high of $21.54
• Institutional buying and Bitcoin’s $120K rally amplify momentum
• EMJ Capital’s SOTP analysis projects $300/share intrinsic value

IREN’s explosive 17.7% rally on July 21 has thrust the renewable-powered Bitcoin miner into the spotlight. The stock surged from its intraday low of $18.39 to a 52-week high of $21.54, driven by a viral SOTP analysis, Bitcoin’s record high, and AI-driven data center demand. With 15.19% turnover and 32.18% leverage ratios in top options, institutional conviction and speculative fervor are colliding.

Viral SOTP Analysis and Bitcoin’s Rally Ignite IREN’s Surge
IREN’s meteoric rise stems from a viral SOTP analysis by EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson, which values the company’s three revenue streams—colocation ($45.2B), Bitcoin mining ($2.1B), and cloud services ($25.2B)—at $300/share. This 1,572% upside potential, combined with Bitcoin’s $120K rally and AI-driven data center demand, triggered a buying frenzy. Institutional participation, as evidenced by 15.19% turnover and 32.18% leverage ratios in top options, further amplified momentum. The stock’s 71.5% year-to-date gain has now tested critical technical levels as options volatility and institutional flows accelerate.

Data Processing Sector Mixed as AMZN Gains 0.79%
IREN20250725C21.5 and IREN20250725C22: High-Leverage Plays on 52-Week High Breakout
• MACD: 1.956 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 1.923, Histogram: 0.0328 (positive momentum)
• RSI: 79.49 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $20.24 (upper), $15.27 (mid), $10.31 (lower)
• 200D MA: $9.99 (massive gap up), 30D MA: $13.51 (support level)

IREN’s technicals scream continuation: RSI near overbought, MACD divergence, and a 15.19% turnover rate signal strong institutional conviction. Key levels to watch are $21.54 (52-week high) and $18.39 (intraday low).

IREN20250725C21.5
• Code: IREN20250725C21.5, Type: Call, Strike: $21.50, Expiry: 2025-07-25
• IV Ratio: 91.50% (reasonable), Delta: 0.422 (moderate exposure), Theta: -0.160 (strong time decay), Gamma: 0.175 (price sensitivity), Turnover: $92,960 (high liquidity), Leverage Ratio: 32.18% (attractive)
• High leverage and liquidity make this ideal for a 5% price move to $22.17, yielding $0.67 profit per contract.

IREN20250725C22
• Code: IREN20250725C22, Type: Call, Strike: $22.00, Expiry: 2025-07-25
• IV Ratio: 110.13% (high), Delta: 0.374 (moderate exposure), Theta: -0.166 (strong time decay), Gamma: 0.141 (price sensitivity), Turnover: $315,893 (exceptional liquidity), Leverage Ratio: 32.18% (attractive)
• Round-number strike and high liquidity offer 32% price sensitivity. A 5% move to $22.17 generates $0.17 profit per contract.

Action: Aggressive bulls target IREN20250725C21.5 as a core position. IREN20250725C22 offers a high-liquidity alternative. Both balance risk/reward with strong technical indicators.

Backtest IREN Stock Performance
The 8% intraday surge in IREN has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that following such a surge:1. Short-Term Gains: The 3-day win rate is 49.65%, with an average return of 1.14% over three days. This indicates that nearly half of the time, the stock continues to rise in the immediate aftermath of the surge.2. Medium-Term Gains: The 10-day win rate is 51.27%, with an average return of 3.44% over ten days. This suggests that a majority of the time, the stock maintains its upward momentum compared to the short term.3. Long-Term Gains: The 30-day win rate is 57.51%, with an average return of 10.76% over thirty days. This indicates that even in the longer term, the stock tends to perform well after an 8% intraday surge.4. Maximum Return: The maximum return observed following the surge is 17.35%, which occurred on day 59 after the surge. This highlights the potential for substantial gains if held for an extended period.In conclusion, an 8% intraday surge in IREN has historically been followed by positive returns over various short-to-medium-term horizons, making it a potentially favorable event for investors looking to capitalize on momentum-based strategies.

IREN at Critical Juncture: 1,572% SOTP Thesis Faces First Major Test
IREN’s 17.7% surge has thrust it into a pivotal moment, with the $21.54 52-week high and $21.50 call option strike as critical inflection points. The 1,572% SOTP thesis gains credibility if these levels hold, but a breakdown below $18.39 could trigger a reversal. With Equinix (EQIX) gaining 2.18% as a sector leader, watch for a break above $21.54 or rejection below $18.39 to determine the next phase. Act now: Position for a breakout with IREN20250725C21.5 or IREN20250725C22.