IREN Soars 8.07% on $9.7B Microsoft AI Cloud Contract: A Game-Changer for Neocloud Sector?

Summary
• IREN’s stock surges 8.07% to $65.65, erasing a 17% pre-market plunge after securing a $9.7B GPU cloud deal with Microsoft.
• The contract includes a 20% prepayment and $5.8B in GPU purchases from Dell, signaling a strategic pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure.
• Intraday volatility sees IREN trade between $64.38 and $75.73, with a 52-week high of $75.73 now within reach.
• The move underscores the neocloud sector’s rapid evolution, as former miners like IREN and CoreWeave capitalize on AI’s insatiable demand for GPU capacity.

Microsoft’s $9.7B Contract Ignites IREN’s Bullish Rebound
IREN’s dramatic intraday rebound stems from a landmark $9.7 billion multi-year GPU cloud services contract with Microsoft. The deal, which includes a 20% prepayment and $5.8 billion in GPU purchases from Dell, positions IREN as a key player in the neocloud sector. The company’s transition from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure has now secured a major hyperscaler client, validating its vertically integrated model. Microsoft’s endorsement of IREN’s liquid-cooled data centers and secured power capacity further amplifies the deal’s strategic value, triggering a 8.07% rally from its intraday low of $64.38.

IREN20251107C64 and IREN20251107C65: High-Leverage Calls for a Volatile Rally
• MACD: 4.017 (bullish divergence from signal line 5.157)
• RSI: 46.28 (oversold territory with potential rebound)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $65.65, above the middle band of $60.96, suggesting upward momentum
• 200-day MA: $19.53 (far below current price, indicating long-term bullish trend)
• Key Support/Resistance: 30D support at $46.77–$47.33; 200D resistance at $5.30–$6.59 (historical context irrelevant at current levels)

IREN’s technicals and options chain suggest a high-conviction short-term trade. The stock’s 8.07% rebound from a 17% pre-market drop indicates strong institutional buying ahead of the $75.73 52-week high. Two top options for aggressive bulls are IREN20251107C64 and IREN20251107C65:

• IREN20251107C64 (Call, $64 strike, 2025-11-07 expiry):
- IV: 138.05% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 11.19% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.648 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Theta: -0.711 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.034 (moderate sensitivity to delta changes)
- Turnover: $633,439 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $68.93): $4.93 per contract. This call benefits from IREN’s potential to test its 52-week high, with IV compression likely as the expiry nears.

• IREN20251107C65 (Call, $65 strike, 2025-11-07 expiry):
- IV: 156.87% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 11.19% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.607 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.759 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.031 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $2,115,281 (exceptional liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $68.93): $3.93 per contract. This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for riding the momentum toward $75.73.

Aggressive bulls should consider IREN20251107C65 into a break above $68.93, with a stop-loss below $64.38 to protect against a reversal.

Backtest IREN Stock Performance
Below is the interactive event-backtest module – you can inspect the statistical curves, draw-downs, and other visuals.Key takeaways (concise):• Sample size: 128 trading-day surges ≥ 8 % since 2022. • Average cumulative excess return peaks around day 12–17 at ≈ +6 – 10 %, but none of the horizons show statistical significance at the 95 % level. • Win-rate fluctuates near 50 – 56 %, offering no clear edge relative to chance. • Benchmark (buy-and-hold) actually outperformed after 20-30 days, indicating mean-reversion following sharp up-moves. • Practical implication: chasing ≥8 % up-days in IREN has not yielded reliable outperformance; a fade/hold-off approach may be more prudent.Feel free to explore the chart for detailed daily P&L curves, distribution of event returns, and drawdown paths. Let me know if you’d like deeper drill-downs (e.g., regime splits, alternative thresholds, or adding stop-loss/take-profit rules).

IREN’s AI Cloud Bet: A High-Velocity Trade with Sector-Wide Implications
IREN’s 8.07% rebound on the Microsoft contract validates its neocloud strategy, but sustainability hinges on execution risks—namely, securing financing for $5.8B in GPU purchases and deploying liquid-cooled data centers by 2026. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a short-term bullish bias, with the 52-week high of $75.73 as the key target. Meanwhile, the sector leader Amazon (AMZN) is up 4.93%, signaling broader tech optimism. Investors should monitor IREN’s ability to maintain above $64.38 and watch for a breakout above $68.93 to confirm the rally’s legitimacy. For now, the neocloud sector is in the spotlight, and IREN’s options market is pricing in a high-stakes game of catch-up with AI’s next frontier.