IREN Surges 15% on AI Cloud Expansion and Analyst Upgrades – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• IREN’s stock rockets 15.15% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $49.2996
• Bernstein upgrades price target to $75, signaling 80% potential upside
• Company doubles GPU fleet to 23,000 units, targeting $500M in AI Cloud ARR by Q1 2026

IREN’s record-breaking rally has captivated markets as the Bitcoin miner-turned-AI cloud juggernaut surges on a perfect storm of strategic execution and analyst optimism. With a 52-week high breached and a $7.5M/megawatt valuation model in play, the stock’s meteoric rise reflects a re-rating of its AI cloud ambitions. The move follows a $674M GPU procurement and a Bernstein-led reevaluation of its sum-of-the-parts value, positioning IREN at the forefront of the AI infrastructure race.

AI Cloud Expansion and Analyst Optimism Drive IREN’s Record Rally
IREN’s 15.15% intraday surge is fueled by a dual catalyst: a $674M GPU procurement to scale its AI cloud fleet to 23,000 units and a Bernstein price target upgrade to $75. The firm’s aggressive expansion—adding 7,100 NVIDIA B300s, 4,200 B200s, and 1,100 AMD MI350X GPUs—positions it to capture $500M in annualized AI Cloud revenue by Q1 2026. Bernstein’s shift to a sum-of-the-parts valuation model, allocating 87% of enterprise value to AI cloud potential, underscores the market’s re-rating of IREN’s vertically integrated infrastructure. The stock’s breakout follows a 365% YOY rally, driven by its dual-margin model: $600M in Bitcoin mining EBITDA and AI cloud growth at 98% hardware margins.

Data Processing Sector Volatile as IREN Outpaces Peers
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector remains fragmented, with CoreWeave (CRWV) down 0.44% despite IREN’s 15% surge. While IREN’s AI cloud strategy leverages its 2.91 GW power portfolio for dual-margin revenue, peers like CRWV rely on co-location deals with limited vertical integration. IREN’s $7.5M/megawatt valuation—though below CoreWeave’s $33M—signals untapped potential as its AI cloud business scales. The sector’s volatility reflects divergent strategies: IREN’s capital-intensive buildout versus CRWV’s capital-light hosting model.

Options and Technicals Signal High-Volatility Play: IREN’s AI Cloud Momentum in Focus
• RSI: 78.16 (overbought)
• MACD: 5.19 (bullish), Signal Line: 4.39, Histogram: 0.80
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $44.17, Middle $31.57, Lower $18.97
• 200D MA: $13.27 (far below current price)

IREN’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum, with RSI near overbought territory and MACD widening. The stock is trading above all key moving averages, suggesting a continuation of its AI cloud-driven rally. Two options stand out for high-leverage exposure:

• IREN20251003C48: Call option with 11.07% leverage, 133.79% IV, and 197.95% price change. Delta of 0.5524 and theta of -0.3027 suggest strong gamma sensitivity and time decay. Turnover of 751,331 indicates liquidity.
• IREN20251003C48.5: Call option with 11.61% leverage, 134.65% IV, and 25.76% price change. Delta of 0.5342 and theta of -0.3023 highlight gamma-driven responsiveness. Turnover of 75,914 supports tradability.

Under a 5% upside scenario (targeting $50.50), IREN20251003C48 would yield a 26.6% payoff (max(0, 50.50 - 48) = $2.50), while IREN20251003C48.5 would deliver a 22.3% payoff (max(0, 50.50 - 48.5) = $2.00). Aggressive bulls should prioritize these calls ahead of the October 3 expiry, leveraging IREN’s AI cloud narrative and Bernstein’s valuation re-rating.

Backtest IREN Stock Performance
Key findings1. Sample size = 31 daily jumps of ≥ 15 % between 2022-01-01 and 2025-09-24. 2. Median follow-up performance is weak. The cumulative excess return vs. buy-and-hold turns negative after day-5 and becomes significantly negative from day-16 onward (-7.6 % vs. +6.2 % for the benchmark). 3. Win-rate never exceeds 60 % and falls below one-third after the third week. 4. A short-term momentum window (1-3 trading days) gives the only positive edge; beyond that, mean-reversion dominates.Analyst notes & assumptions• “Intraday surge” was approximated by close-to-close jumps ≥ 15 % because high-frequency prints are not available in the current dataset. • All statistics use daily close prices, standard 30-day post-event horizon and equal-weighted averaging across events. • Benchmark = buy-and-hold IREN over the same calendar span. • Holiday and split adjustments are handled automatically by the data provider.Feel free to let me know if you would like a different holding horizon, add stop-loss / take-profit overlays, or run the same study on peer miners.Below is an interactive event-study dashboard—click to explore individual event paths, distribution of returns, and optimal exit day.

IREN’s AI Cloud Bet Gains Traction – Position for Next-Phase Growth
IREN’s 15% rally is a testament to its AI cloud strategy’s scalability and Bernstein’s re-rating of its value proposition. With 23,000 GPUs deployed and $500M ARR in sight, the stock’s momentum is likely to persist as its AI cloud business matures. Investors should monitor the $48.50 resistance level and CoreWeave’s (-0.44%) performance as sector benchmarks. For those seeking leverage, the IREN20251003C48 and IREN20251003C48.5 options offer high-gamma exposure to a stock trading at 150x dynamic PE but with AI cloud margins approaching 98%. Watch for a breakout above $50.50 to confirm the next leg of this AI infrastructure story.