IREN Soars 13% on $9.7B Microsoft Contract: Is This the AI Infrastructure Breakout?

Summary
• IREN surges 13% intraday to $47.76, breaking through $45 resistance
• $9.7B Microsoft AI cloud deal secures 23,000+ GPUs and 750MW Texas data center
• Analysts split between 'market outperform' and 'sell' ratings amid sector rotation

IREN’s 13% rally on November 24, 2025, marks a pivotal inflection point for the AI infrastructure sector. The stock’s surge from $42.92 to $47.85 follows a landmark Microsoft contract and a wave of analyst upgrades, despite broader market jitters over AI valuation bubbles. With 19M shares traded and a 7.69% turnover rate, the move reflects institutional conviction in IREN’s renewable-powered data center model.

Microsoft Contract Validates AI Cloud Pivot
IREN’s 13% intraday surge stems from its $9.7 billion, five-year AI cloud contract with Microsoft, announced November 6. The deal secures 23,000+ Nvidia GB300 GPUs and 750MW of renewable energy at IREN’s Texas data center, validating its transition from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure. Analysts at Citizens Jmp upgraded IREN to 'market outperform' with an $80 price target, while Wall Street Zen downgraded to 'sell' amid sector rotation. The stock’s breakout above $45 resistance aligns with a $3.4B AI cloud ARR target by 2026, supported by Microsoft’s urgent need for immediate compute capacity.

Data Processing Sector Volatile Amid EU Regulatory Shifts
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector remains volatile as the EU’s Digital Omnibus package proposes stricter data governance rules, including trade secret protections and streamlined B2G data sharing. While IREN’s rally is driven by Microsoft’s AI cloud demand, peers like EQIX (-0.53%) face regulatory uncertainty. The sector’s 12-month YTD return (386%) far outpaces the S&P 500 (13.74%), but near-term jitters persist over AI valuation corrections.

Options Playbook: Leverage IREN’s Breakout Momentum
• RSI: 24.52 (oversold), MACD: -3.19 (bearish), 200D MA: $22.88 (far below)
• Bollinger Bands: $38.17–$76.13 (current price at 57% of range)
• 52W High: $76.87 (63% upside from $47.76)

IREN’s 13% rally creates a high-conviction setup for aggressive bulls. Key levels to watch: $48 (psychological support) and $50 (next resistance). The stock’s 12.93% intraday gain suggests short-term momentum, but RSI at 24.52 indicates oversold conditions. Two options stand out for leveraged exposure:

• IREN20251128C48: Call option with 21.37% leverage, 111.30% IV, and $247,952 turnover. Delta of 0.4917 and theta of -0.4179 suggest strong price sensitivity and time decay. Projected 5% upside (to $49.94) yields $2,247 profit per contract.
• IREN20251128C49.5: Call option with 30.81% leverage, 107.12% IV, and $72,913 turnover. Delta of 0.3928 and theta of -0.3675 balance risk and reward. A 5% move to $50.15 generates $1,650 profit.

Aggressive bulls should target IREN20251128C48 into a break above $48.50, while conservative traders may use IREN20251128C49.5 for a measured breakout. Both contracts benefit from IREN’s 88% EPS growth forecast and Microsoft’s $1.9B annualized revenue lock.

Backtest IREN Stock Performance
Key observations from the event study (≥ 13 % single-day surges, 44 events since 2022):• Short-term lift is modest and statistically weak – the average next-day gain is only +1.6 %, and significance never rises above the 95 % confidence line at any horizon tested. • Medium-term under-performance – by 30 trading days the cumulative event basket lags the benchmark by more than 11 ppts ( +5.3 % vs +16.9 %). • Win-rate drifts around 40-50 % across most holding windows, indicating no persistent edge. • Conclusion: for IREN, a 13 %+ daily spike has not historically signalled a reliable follow-through; momentum fades quickly and relative performance turns negative within a month.Default / auto-filled parameters 1. Price series: daily close (no user preference provided). 2. Test window: 30 days after each event (standard IWencai module default). 3. Back-test period: 2022-01-01 – 2025-11-24 (full dataset available). Interactive report 🎯 – explore full statistics and individual event paths in the panel on the right.

IREN’s AI Cloud Bet: Ride the Breakout or Cut Losses?
IREN’s 13% surge on November 24, 2025, signals a critical inflection in its AI cloud transition. With Microsoft’s $9.7B contract securing 23,000+ GPUs and 750MW of renewable energy, the stock’s 52W high of $76.87 remains a 63% upside target. Technicals show oversold RSI (24.52) and a 12.93% intraday gain, but sector rotation risks persist. Watch for a $48.50 close to confirm the breakout, or a retest of $45 support. Sector leader EQIX (-0.53%) highlights broader data center volatility. For now, aggressive bulls should buy IREN20251128C48 into a $48.50 break, while hedgers may short IREN20251128P48 if $45.50 breaks.