IREN Soars 10% on $9.7B Microsoft Contract—Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• IREN surges 10.07% to $73.34, hitting an intraday high of $74.33
• $9.7B GPU cloud contract with Microsoft announced, including 20% prepayment
• Options frenzy: 17 of 20 contracts show >30% price change, with IREN20251114C71 up 59.70%
• Sector leader Microsoft down -0.99% as IREN defies broader market weakness

IREN’s explosive move has ignited a frenzy in options markets and technical indicators, driven by a landmark Microsoft deal. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $75.73 and a dynamic PE of 229.5, investors are scrambling to position for a potential breakout. The $9.7B contract—funded by prepayments and existing cash—signals a strategic pivot toward hyperscaler clients, positioning IREN as a key player in AI infrastructure.

Microsoft Megadeal Ignites IREN’s Bull Run
IREN’s 10.07% surge stems from a $9.7 billion GPU cloud contract with Microsoft, announced on November 3. The agreement includes a 20% prepayment and involves deploying NVIDIA GB300 GPUs at IREN’s Texas campus. This deal validates IREN’s vertically integrated AI cloud model, offering direct-to-chip liquid cooling and 750MW of secured power. The contract’s scale—$5.8B in GPU procurement with Dell—underscores IREN’s ability to execute large-scale infrastructure projects, attracting institutional buyers and speculative options activity.

Data Processing Sector Lags as IREN Defies Trend
While IREN’s sector—Data Processing & Outsourced Services—has seen recent activity in payment processors like Mastercard and Visa, the sector leader Microsoft is down -0.99% today. This divergence highlights IREN’s unique positioning in AI cloud infrastructure versus traditional data processing. Microsoft’s decline suggests broader tech sector caution, but IREN’s deal with its largest client signals a strategic shift toward high-margin AI services, creating a decoupling from sector peers.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on IREN’s Breakout Momentum
• 200-day average: 20.09 (far below current price)
• RSI: 48.56 (neutral, but rising)
• MACD: 4.47 (bullish), signal line 4.89 (bearish), histogram -0.42 (divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $70.74 (upper), $61.71 (middle), $52.68 (lower)—price near upper band
• K-line pattern: Short-term bullish trend confirmed

IREN’s technicals suggest a continuation of its rally, with key resistance at $75.73 (52W high) and support at $67.70 (intraday low). The 4.47 MACD line crossing above the 4.89 signal line historically signals a bullish breakout, though the negative histogram indicates caution. High-liquidity options like IREN20251114C71 and IREN20251114C72 offer leveraged exposure to this move.

• IREN20251114C71
- Code: IREN20251114C71
- Type: Call
- Strike: $71
- Expiration: 2025-11-14
- IV: 147.43% (high volatility)
- LVR: 8.88% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: 0.601 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.492 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0216 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $1,138,101 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside (76.99): $5.99/share
- This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a short-term rally. The high gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings, while the 147% IV reflects market anticipation of further volatility.

• IREN20251114C72
- Code: IREN20251114C72
- Type: Call
- Strike: $72
- Expiration: 2025-11-14
- IV: 148.33% (extreme volatility)
- LVR: 9.40% (strong leverage)
- Delta: 0.579 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.494 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0217 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $270,832 (solid liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside (76.99): $4.99/share
- This contract offers aggressive leverage with a strike price near current levels. The 148% IV and high gamma make it ideal for a sharp move, though theta decay requires swift execution before expiration.

Aggressive bulls should consider IREN20251114C71 into a break above $74.33 (intraday high).

Backtest IREN Stock Performance
I attempted to retrieve the historical daily data for IREN but the data-service call failed (internal “get_asset_base_info” error). This sometimes happens when the upstream data gateway temporarily can’t locate a ticker symbol (e.g., exchange code differences: “IREN” vs. “IREN.O” vs. “IREN.OQ”). To continue the event back-test you requested (evaluate IREN’s post-performance after any day it surges ≥ 10 % intraday, from 2022-01-01 to today), I can:1. Retry the data pull with alternative ticker formats (e.g., “IREN”, “IREN US”, “IREN.OQ”). 2. If your data vendor/ticker differs (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.), you could confirm the exact symbol. 3. Or, if you already have the daily OHLC data for IREN (CSV/JSON), you can upload it and I’ll proceed directly to event detection and back-testing.Let me know which approach you prefer, and I’ll continue.

IREN’s AI Cloud Breakout: Act Now Before the Window Closes
IREN’s $9.7B Microsoft deal has created a self-fulfilling prophecy: prepayments, secured power, and institutional demand are fueling a short-term rally. Technicals suggest a test of the $75.73 52-week high, with the MACD divergence hinting at potential exhaustion if the move stalls. However, the options frenzy and high IV indicate market conviction. Watch Microsoft’s -0.99% decline for sector-wide cues, but IREN’s vertical integration and hyperscaler focus position it as a standalone AI infrastructure play. Take profit on IREN20251114C71 if $74.33 breaks, or hold for a $75.73 target.