IREN Surges 15.63% on AI Cloud Expansion and Bernstein's Bold Price Target Hike

Summary
• IREN shares rocket 15.63% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $49.2996
• Bernstein upgrades price target to $75, signaling 80% upside potential
• Company doubles GPU fleet to 23,000 units, targeting $500M AI Cloud ARR by Q1 2026

IREN’s meteoric rise reflects a perfect storm of strategic AI cloud expansion, analyst optimism, and robust demand for GPU capacity. With the stock trading at $48.3 as of 18:39 ET, the intraday range—from $43.3195 to $49.2996—underscores the market’s aggressive re-rating of the firm’s AI-driven transformation.

AI Cloud Expansion and Analyst Hype Fuel IREN’s Record Move
IREN’s 15.63% surge stems from a dual catalyst: a 12,400-GPU procurement valued at $674 million and Bernstein’s upgraded $75 price target. The firm’s AI Cloud ARR target now stands at $500 million by Q1 2026, up from $14 million in Q1 2025, driven by 23,300 GPUs including NVIDIA B300s and AMD MI350Xs. Bernstein’s shift to a sum-of-the-parts valuation model—assigning 87% of enterprise value to AI cloud—signals a re-rating of IREN’s self-operated infrastructure model, which leverages 2.91 GW of power and 810 MW of data-center capacity to balance Bitcoin mining and AI workloads.

Data Processing & Outsourced Services Sector Mixed as IREN Leads AI Charge
While IREN’s 15.63% surge dwarfs sector peers, the Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector remains fragmented. CoreWeave (CRWV), the sector’s leader, rose just 0.83% intraday, highlighting IREN’s unique positioning in AI cloud infrastructure. Unlike traditional BPO firms, IREN’s vertically integrated model—owning power, land, and data centers—creates a moat absent in competitors reliant on co-location deals. This divergence underscores IREN’s potential to outperform as AI demand outpaces global supply.

IREN20251003C48 and IREN20251003C48.5: High-Leverage Bets on AI Cloud Momentum
• 200-day average: $13.2686 (far below current price)
• RSI: 78.16 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 5.19 (bullish divergence from signal line 4.39)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $48.3, well above upper band of $44.17

IREN’s technicals scream continuation of its AI-driven rally. Key levels to watch: $49.2996 (52-week high) and $45 (psychological support). The stock’s 15.63% intraday gain suggests short-term momentum, though RSI overbought conditions and a 21.27% turnover rate hint at potential profit-taking. No leveraged ETF data is available, but the options chain offers high-conviction plays.

Top Option 1: IREN20251003C48
• Code: IREN20251003C48
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $48
• Expiration: 2025-10-03
• IV Ratio: 129.83% (high volatility)
• Leverage Ratio: 11.34%
• Delta: 0.5531 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.2972 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0382 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: $846,143

This call option offers a 191.10% price change ratio, ideal for capitalizing on IREN’s near-term breakout. With a delta of 0.55 and gamma of 0.038, it balances directional exposure with sensitivity to price swings. A 5% upside to $50.715 would yield a payoff of $2.715 per contract, or 5.6% of the strike price.

Top Option 2: IREN20251003C48.5
• Code: IREN20251003C48.5
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $48.5
• Expiration: 2025-10-03
• IV Ratio: 131.36% (elevated)
• Leverage Ratio: 11.85%
• Delta: 0.5346 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.2978 (aggressive decay)
• Gamma: 0.0379 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $79,474

This contract’s 23.64% price change ratio and 0.53 delta make it a compelling leveraged play. A 5% move to $50.715 would generate a $2.215 payoff, or 4.6% of the strike price. Its high gamma and theta suggest it’s best for traders expecting rapid price acceleration.

Hook: Aggressive bulls should target IREN20251003C48 into a break above $49.2996, while hedgers may use IREN20251003P49.5 for downside protection.

Backtest IREN Stock Performance
Based on the event-study backtest, buying IREN after a one-day ≥ 16 % surge has not delivered a statistically reliable edge over 2022-09-24 to 2025-09-24. Key points • 29 surge events detected. • Average next-day gain ≈ +3 %, but the edge dissipates by day 3 and turns negative afterwards. • From day 16 onward, returns are significantly below the benchmark and trend lower through day 30 (≈ -9 % cumulative vs +12 % benchmark). Implication: momentum from single-day spikes tends to fade, with meaningful under-performance after two weeks.You can explore the full interactive statistics and per-event charts in the module below.

IREN’s AI Cloud Bet: A High-Velocity Trade with Clear Catalysts
IREN’s 15.63% surge is underpinned by a clear, data-driven narrative: AI Cloud ARR growth, GPU expansion, and Bernstein’s re-rating. While RSI overbought conditions and a 21.27% turnover rate suggest short-term volatility, the stock’s 52-week high of $49.2996 and $50.715 5% upside target remain critical. Watch for a breakout above $49.2996 to confirm the AI cloud thesis. Meanwhile, sector leader CoreWeave (CRWV) rose just 0.83%, underscoring IREN’s unique positioning. Act now: Buy IREN20251003C48 for a leveraged play on the AI cloud rally, or short-term traders can target $49.2996 as a key inflection point.