Iran Rejects Oman's Hormuz Plan-13 Daily Transits Say the Oil Risk Is Not Over

Iran-Oman talks are advancing, but traffic still says the risk remains high

Diplomacy is not yet lowering the risk premium. Kpler data shows daily Strait of Hormuz crossings falling from roughly 45 to just 13 after conflict returned. That is not what normal operation looks like; it is a market still pricing disruption.

Final-stage talks do not yet mean safer passage

Iran says Oman negotiations are in the "final stages". But until any agreement changes actual transit capacity, insurance terms, and operator confidence, traders have little reason to treat advancing diplomacy as full de-risking.

Iran's rejection of joint oversight keeps the setup unsettled

There is still no agreed operating framework. Iran has rejected a proposal from Oman for the countries' joint oversight and offered a counterproposal that would give Tehran more control. That matters because markets do not rerate on intent alone; they need a workable rulebook.

Traffic is not broadly recovering. Among ships still willing to cross, movement has concentrated on the Iranian route, and on the most recent day tracked all eight vessels that crossed used the Iranian route. The signal is simple: some commercial flow is returning, but only along politically contested terms that operators still consider usable.

For energy markets, the next real trigger is not another round of talks. It is a verifiable step that gets sustained traffic closer to the pre-return-to-conflict level.

Why a verbal reopening has not yet reset oil, LNG, or freight

Before the war, about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies from Gulf producers shipped through Hormuz. That is why a diplomatic declaration has not immediately normalized markets. When so much energy passes through one chokepoint, confidence matters as much as rhetoric.

Insurance and safety are still the bottleneck

Bimco said it is still very risky to commence transits at this point because mine-free routes need to be established. If insurers remain restrictive, sellers and shipowners still face higher financing, chartering, and routing costs. That can keep scarcity pricing in place even without another dramatic headline.

Stranded tankers show the backlog is real

CSIS reports that Hundreds of tankers have stranded in the Persian Gulf during this episode. After Iran's April reopening announcement, dozens of vessels surged toward the Strait of Hormuz, trying to exit. Automatic identification system (AIS) data from Starboard Maritime Intelligence shows that most quickly reversed course. That suggests demand for exit exists, but the market still does not fully trust the terms of passage.

A partial return can ease panic before it eases scarcity

Even if conditions improve, the system will not clear instantly. The early phase of reopening may reduce fear faster than it removes supply constraints, because available tonnage, vessel positioning, and insurance terms can still lag the headline.

What would actually de-rate energy prices

The next test is operational, not diplomatic. Traders should treat the planned signing on 19 June as a catalyst only if it produces observable changes in transit behavior and conditions. If it does not, the market is likely to keep waiting for confidence rather than headlines.