Iran's Nuclear Program Only Set Back by Months After U.S. Strikes

A recent intelligence report from the Defense Department suggests that the U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities have only set back the country's nuclear program by a few months. According to two individuals familiar with the early assessment, the report indicates that the strikes did not "completely and fully obliterate" Iran's nuclear capabilities, as President Donald Trump had claimed. The report, issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency, contradicts statements made by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the status of Iran’s nuclear facilities. While the strikes at the Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites caused significant damage, the facilities were not entirely destroyed. The report also suggests that some of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, essential for creating a nuclear weapon, was moved out of multiple sites before the U.S. strikes and survived. Additionally, Iran’s centrifuges, which are required to further enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels, remain largely intact.

At the deeply buried Fordo uranium enrichment plant, where U.S. B-2 stealth bombers dropped several 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, the entrance collapsed and infrastructure was damaged. However, the underground infrastructure was not destroyed. Intelligence officials had previously warned of such an outcome in assessments ahead of the strike on Fordo. The White House has strongly pushed back on the DIA assessment, calling it “flat-out wrong.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program. The CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the DIA assessment. Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff, who has read damage assessment reports from U.S. intelligence and other nations, reiterated that the strikes had deprived Iran of the ability to develop a weapon and called it outrageous that the U.S. assessment was shared with reporters. Trump has maintained that the strike left the sites in Iran “totally destroyed” and that Iran will never rebuild its nuclear facilities. Netanyahu also claimed that the U.S. joining Israel was “historic” and thanked Trump for the effort.

Outside experts had suspected that Iran had likely already hidden the core components of its nuclear program in anticipation of potential American bunker-buster bomb strikes. Satellite imagery taken just days before the strikes showed bulldozers and trucks, fueling speculation among experts that Iran may have transferred its half-ton stockpile of enriched uranium to an unknown location. The incomplete destruction of the nuclear sites could still leave the country with the capacity to spin up weapons-grade uranium and develop a bomb. Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful, but it has enriched significant quantities of uranium beyond the levels required for any civilian use. The U.S. and others assessed prior to the U.S. strikes that Iran’s theocratic leadership had not yet ordered the country to pursue an operational nuclear weapon. However, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that Iran has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs should it choose to do so.

Vice President JD Vance stated that even if Iran is still in control of its stockpile of enriched uranium, the U.S. has cut off Iran’s ability to convert it to a nuclear weapon. He explained that if Iran has 60% enriched uranium but lacks the ability to enrich it further to 90% and convert it to a nuclear weapon, the mission is considered a success. Approximately 42 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb if enriched further to 90%. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi informed the U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi that Tehran would “adopt special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials.” American satellite imagery and analysis firm Maxar Technologies photographed trucks and bulldozers at the Fordo site beginning on June 19, three days before the Americans struck. Subsequent imagery revealed that the tunnel entrances into the underground complex had been sealed off with dirt prior to the U.S. airstrikes. Some experts believe that these trucks could also have been used to move out Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. It is plausible that Iran moved the material enriched to 60% out of Fordo and loaded it on a truck. Iran could also have moved other equipment, including centrifuges, though moving delicate centrifuges without inflicting damage is more challenging.

Over the past four years, Iran has produced centrifuges key to enrichment without oversight from the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Iran also announced that it has built and will activate a third nuclear enrichment facility. IAEA chief Grossi said the facility was located in Isfahan, a place where Iran has several other nuclear sites. After being bombarded by both the Israelis and the Americans, it is unclear if, or how quickly, Isfahan’s facilities, including tunnels, could become operational. However, given all of the equipment and material likely still under Iran’s control, this offers Tehran “a pretty solid foundation for a reconstituted covert program and for getting a bomb.” If Iran had already diverted its centrifuges, it can build a covert enrichment facility with a small footprint and quickly enrich to weapons-grade levels. However, if Iran launched a covert nuclear program, it would do so at a disadvantage, having lost to Israeli and American strikes vital equipment and personnel crucial for turning the enriched uranium into a functional nuclear weapon.