Iran Loses Track of 409 Kilograms of Highly Enriched Uranium Amid Ceasefire

The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, announced by the United States, has brought a temporary halt to the exchange of missiles. However, the most pressing mystery of this conflict remains unsolved: the whereabouts of Iran's highly enriched uranium, which is close to weapon-grade, are still unknown.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) admitted that its inspectors had lost track of 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of high-enriched uranium in Iran just five days after the conflict began. This amount of uranium is sufficient to produce 10 nuclear warheads if Iran's Supreme Leader decides to proceed with weaponization. The disappearance of this highly enriched uranium has raised significant concerns about the potential for a nuclear crisis in the region.

According to estimates from regulatory bodies, this stockpile could be stored in 16 cylindrical containers, each 36 inches (91.4 centimeters) high, roughly the size of a large scuba diving tank. Each cylinder weighs approximately 25 kilograms, making it light enough to be carried by hand or loaded onto a small vehicle and transported to a secret location.

Even if Israel and the United States have effectively destroyed Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure in the foreseeable future, the risk remains that uranium close to weapon-grade may be hidden indefinitely. The IAEA Director General expressed optimism that a lasting ceasefire agreement could pave the way for the resumption of Iran nuclear talks and the return of inspectors. "Hostilities must cease to ensure the necessary safety and security conditions for Iran to allow the IAEA team to enter the relevant facilities and assess the situation," the Director General said at an emergency meeting of the United Nations nuclear watchdog.

The disappearance of Iran's nuclear fuel has highlighted the high risk taken by Israel in launching a military operation against Iran just two weeks ago. This decision was made after five rounds of talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement. Before the attack, IAEA inspectors had been meticulously tracking Iran's declared uranium stockpiles, checking multiple sites daily to ensure the materials were properly handled and not diverted for weapons production.

However, the June 13 Israeli airstrike prompted Iran to move the materials to an undeclared facility, even before the U.S. joined the operation with more advanced bombing technology over the weekend. Despite the Director General's request for Iran to inform its inspectors of the new location, there is no guarantee that inspectors will be allowed to enter, regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement holds.

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is a positive step, but it does not address the underlying tensions or the nuclear threat posed by Iran. The international community must continue to engage with both sides to find a lasting solution to the crisis. This includes addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions and the broader regional tensions that have fueled the conflict. The situation in the Middle East remains fragile, and the disappearance of the highly enriched uranium is a stark reminder of the potential consequences of inaction.