Iran Faces Limited Retaliatory Options After U.S. Strikes

Following the U.S. bombing of three key nuclear facilities in Iran late Saturday, the world is watching closely to see how Iran will respond. The conflict, which had previously been largely between Iran and Israel, has now escalated significantly with the U.S. entering offensive operations. President Donald Trump's decision to launch these strikes, coupled with his threat of further attacks unless Iran seeks peace, has raised the stakes considerably.

Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a leading expert on Iran, has warned that Iran's retaliatory options are limited and potentially catastrophic. He described these options as the "strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing," noting that any significant retaliation could lead to severe blowback for the Iranian regime. Iran could strike U.S. embassies and bases, attack oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, mine the Strait of Hormuz, or launch missiles at Israel. However, such actions could provoke a response that the regime might not survive.

The potential for Iran to use proxies and allies in the region to retaliate has been weakened by earlier Israeli attacks, which have crippled Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Additionally, Iran's Revolutionary Guards, a substantial force of 190,000 troops, are not monolithic, and their loyalty to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could be tested. Sadjadpour questioned whether the Guards would continue to defer to Khamenei, whose regional and nuclear ambitions have ended in failure.

Other analysts have suggested that Iran could retaliate by taking Americans as hostages or launching cyberattacks. However, retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, who previously served as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, predicted that Iran is unlikely to resort to a maximum response like blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, Iran may launch missiles at U.S. bases in the region or direct pro-Tehran militias in Iraq to attack U.S. forces. Clark noted that the Iranian regime is calculated and careful in its actions, suggesting that a major response is unlikely.

The situation remains uncertain, with Sadjadpour noting that Khamenei believes caving in to pressure projects weakness and invites more pressure. However, Khamenei is also not a "reckless gambler," creating a tension between his survival instincts and his defiant instincts. This unprecedented moment in Iranian history could either entrench the regime or hasten its demise, prevent a nuclear Iran or accelerate one. Military attacks and humiliations have both strengthened and weakened dictatorships in the past, making the outcome of this conflict difficult to predict.