Iran Says It 'Doesn't Trust' the U.S. - Why This Ceasefire Comment Is Back in Oil's Price

The memorandum created a waiting game for oil

This matters because the deal structure turned oil into a waiting game, not a final verdict. Under the memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz would start to reopen and the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports would start to lift as soon as it was signed, but the harder issues - Iran's nuclear issue and U.S. sanctions - were pushed into the following 60 days of talks. That setup gave markets the optics of de-escalation while leaving the hard disputes for later.

Why the market cared immediately

Price showed that sensitivity right away. After Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.95, or 2.8%, to $72.39 a barrel. That reaction showed traders were still pricing Hormuz risk even during the ceasefire window.

Iran's "no trust" message kept the risk premium alive

The bigger signal was not that a ceasefire existed. It was that Iran told markets the political truce was real, but the security backstop was not.

What Ibn Reza's statement changed

Ibn Reza effectively gave oil traders both sides of the case in one remark. On the calm side, he said Tehran signed the memorandum to help restore regional stability. On the risk side, he said Iran had no trust in the other party and that its armed forces remained on full alert. He also said production lines are operating more actively than in the past, which reinforces the picture of a country staying prepared for escalation rather than fully winding down.

When one side says conditions are stabilizing and another says trust is absent, every shipping scare, diplomatic delay, or vague statement can still become a price event.

Why this matters for crude

A deal built more on contact than confidence can remain technically alive while the risk premium stays embedded in crude. For oil, that is more important than diplomatic theater.

Oil had priced in calm before the late-July rerating

The market was not asking whether tensions existed. It was asking whether prices had become too comfortable.

The calm trade was already dominant

Oil had already worked through much of its initial shock. After the conflict began, Brent peaked around $126 and averaged $101 before retreating to pre-war levels of $70 in early July. That move led many traders to assume the ceasefire meant calmer flows and a fading risk premium.

That is why the next move mattered. In late July, Brent rose to $96, its highest since June 8. Markets did not need full-scale disruption to react; they needed evidence that calm was not secured. Demand conditions also offered less comfort than bulls may have hoped: earlier that month, U.S. crude inventories fell for an eighth consecutive week, showing the buffer many traders leaned on was shrinking.

The next 60 days mattered more than the headline ceasefire

For the next 30 to 60 days, oil was not trading a clean peace deal. It was trading a countdown. The memorandum offered useful optics, but the harder issues - Iran's nuclear issue and U.S. sanctions - were pushed into a following 60 days of talks. That was the window that really mattered. With WTI recently around $72.39 a barrel after the early spike, the question was no longer whether conflict had existed. It was whether the market was underestimating how easily the truce could derail inside its own timeline.

What to watch

• Diplomacy stays cosmetic. If talks keep circling the same hard disputes without delivering concessions, the idea that calm is locked in stays fragile.
• Shipping gets hit again. The market already showed how it reacts to fresh Hormuz stress after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels.
• Pressure keeps building, not fading. Washington kept imposing new Iran-related sanctions following Iran's resumption of attacks on international shipping, while Tehran also said its production lines are operating more actively.

What would invalidate the thesis

The thesis weakens only if the second phase of talks starts producing real concessions on Iran's nuclear issue and U.S. sanctions, and tanker incidents stop resetting market anxiety. Until then, the market remains more exposed than the initial post-ceasefire calm suggested.