IQVIA Shares Fall 2.38% as Bearish Engulfing Pattern and Moving Average Crossover Confirm Downtrend Amid Oversold RSI

Candlestick Theory

The recent 2.38% decline in IQVIA (IQV) has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, with the candlestick body closing near the session low. Key support levels are identified at $190.26 (2025-09-30 low) and $184.08 (2025-09-04 low), while resistance clusters exist around $203.79 (2025-09-01 high) and $205.02 (2025-10-06 high). A hanging man pattern on October 10 suggests potential continuation of the downtrend, though bullish reversal signals like a bullish engulfing near $190.26 could challenge the bearish bias.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average ($195.50) has crossed below the 200-day MA ($196.30), confirming a bearish trend. The 100-day MA ($195.80) aligns with the 50-day, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. However, the 200-day MA remains above the 100-day, indicating a mixed signal for long-term holders. A retest of the 50-day MA as support (currently at $194.00) will be critical to assess trend strength.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has contracted sharply from +1.2 to -2.1, signaling waning bullish momentum. The MACD line (-2.1) crossing below the signal line (-1.5) on October 10 confirms a bearish crossover. The KDJ (Stochastic) oscillator shows the %K line ($198.17) below the %D line ($199.30), with RSI at 28, indicating oversold conditions. However, the divergence between the RSI and price (RSI at 28 vs. price at $198.17) suggests the oversold level may not trigger a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, reflecting heightened volatility during the recent sell-off. The price closed near the lower band ($197.75–204.63), a classic oversold signal. However, the 20-period standard deviation (currently 5.2) indicates the bands are stretched, increasing the probability of a retest before a potential bounce. The middle band ($201.20) acts as a dynamic resistance, with a break below $197.75 likely to trigger further declines.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked to 1.99 million shares on October 10, a 22% increase from the prior session, validating the bearish breakdown. The volume-to-price ratio (397.9M/198.17 = ~2,009) exceeds the 30-day average (1,850), suggesting strong conviction in the downtrend. However, the lack of follow-through volume on subsequent bearish days (e.g., October 7–9) raises questions about sustainability.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at 28, confirming oversold conditions. Historical data shows RSI rarely dips below 30 without a rebound, but the current context—a prolonged bearish trend—increases the risk of a false signal. A close above 30 would require a 4.4% rally to $206.30, a tall order given the weak volume and bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the $179.20 (2025-09-30 low) to $204.25 (2025-09-01 high) include 61.8% at $190.26 and 78.6% at $184.08. The price’s recent rejection near $190.26 aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential consolidation zone. A break below $184.08 would target the 88.6% level at $176.16, but this would require a divergence in volume and momentum indicators.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based strategy (buying at <30, exiting at >70) from 2022 to October 2025 achieved a 139.45% return versus the benchmark’s 48.70%, with a 27.87% CAGR. However, the strategy’s 56.88% volatility and 0% max drawdown highlight execution risks, as real-world trading faces slippage and delayed entries. Integrating Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band contractions could refine entry/exit points, particularly during oversold conditions.