IQUSDT Market Overview – 2025-10-10

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• Price action: IQ/Tether posted a bearish 24-hour close, declining from 0.003101 to 0.002979 with key support tested at 0.003001.
• Momentum shifts: RSI and MACD signal waning bullish momentum, with overbought levels giving way to bearish divergence in the latter part of the session.
• Volatility spikes: Volatility expanded significantly during the midday US session, coinciding with large-volume sell-off waves.
• Volume dynamics: Notional turnover surged during the 15:15–16:00 ET sell-off, confirming bearish sentiment and divergence from earlier bullish volume.
• Key patterns: A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.003101–0.003096, followed by a potential bear trap as price dropped below 0.003078.

The IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) pair opened at 0.003101 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.002979 by 12:00 ET on October 10, hitting a high of 0.003129 and a low of 0.00297. The total volume traded over 24 hours was 153,228,248.0, with a notional turnover of approximately 464.8 (using average price). The session featured pronounced volatility and bearish momentum, with price breaking below key support levels and testing the 0.003001 level in the late afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The price of IQ/Tether exhibited a clear bearish bias over the 24-hour period, with key resistance levels forming in the 0.003105–0.003115 range. A series of bearish engulfing candles emerged during the midday to early afternoon hours, particularly between 15:15 and 16:00 ET, confirming a breakdown from the 0.003078 level. The 0.003001 level, identified as a prior support turned immediate resistance, was tested heavily but failed to hold. This breakdown may indicate a short-term bearish continuation toward 0.00296–0.00298, with potential for a retracement into the 0.003001–0.003020 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price of IQ/Tether remained below the 20- and 50-period moving averages for most of the session, with the 50-period line acting as a dynamic resistance. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish death cross signal in the 15:00–16:00 ET window. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs were all in alignment, with price currently testing the 50-period MA, which is at 0.003075. If the 100- and 200-period lines are also broken, this would confirm a stronger bearish trend continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for IQ/Tether showed a bearish crossover in the midday session, with the histogram expanding during the sell-off from 0.003125 to 0.003001. The RSI reached overbought levels briefly during the early morning hours but quickly diverged into oversold territory, confirming the breakdown. By the close, the RSI was at 24.8, indicating a potential oversold condition, though without a clear bullish reversal pattern, this may only offer temporary support.

Bollinger Bands

The price of IQ/Tether expanded above the upper Bollinger Band multiple times during the morning session, particularly between 03:45 and 05:15 ET, before collapsing into the lower band in the late afternoon and evening hours. The volatility contraction observed between 08:00 and 13:00 ET gave way to a significant expansion after the bearish breakout. Price currently rests near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce or continuation lower, depending on volume and pattern signals.

Volume & Turnover

Notional turnover spiked dramatically between 15:15 and 16:00 ET, with large-volume sell-off waves confirming the breakdown below 0.003078. The total notional turnover of 464.8 over 24 hours aligns with the bearish price action and confirms strong selling pressure. Volume was also elevated during the 03:45–04:00 and 05:45–06:00 ET windows, but failed to confirm a bullish breakout. The divergence between volume and price in the early morning suggests a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.003129 to 0.003068, price currently rests near the 61.8% retracement level at 0.003003. This level coincides with the 0.003001–0.003003 support zone and may provide temporary consolidation. On the daily chart, the recent high at 0.003129 and low at 0.002970 suggest a larger bearish trend, with the 38.2% retracement at 0.003050 currently acting as resistance. A break below 0.002970 could test the 0.00296–0.00298 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a bearish breakout setup targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of recent 15-minute swings as an entry point. A short position could be initiated on a confirmed close below this level, with a stop above the 0.003005 resistance and a target at the 38.2% level at 0.003050 or further into the 0.00296–0.00298 zone. This approach aligns with the current bearish momentum and overbought divergence in RSI. Given the recent expansion in volatility and confirmation by volume, this strategy appears valid for testing over the next 24–48 hours.