IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) Market Overview: October 11, 2025

• Price action showed a sharp drop from 0.003005 to 0.002413 before a moderate recovery.
• High volatility observed between 19:30 and 22:00 ET, followed by consolidation.
• RSI reached oversold territory and showed signs of potential bullish reversal.
• Bollinger Bands contracted during the early hours, suggesting low volatility.
• Volume spiked dramatically during the 21:30–22:00 ET window.

The IQ/Tether (IQUSDT) pair opened at 0.003002 at 12:00 ET − 1 and fell to a low of 0.002413, closing at 0.002546 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour candle closed at a 17% discount to the opening price, with total volume reaching approximately 1.09 billion Tether and notional turnover reflecting heightened trading interest during the sharp correction and subsequent stabilization.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish breakout from a prior consolidation range, with a strong 0.002962–0.002413 leg down confirming a breakdown below key support. A hammer pattern formed at 0.002413, followed by a moderate rebound. The 0.002543–0.002581 range appears to offer immediate support, with resistance forming near 0.002620–0.002635 from the previous evening’s rally. A morning doji and a bullish engulfing pattern suggest a potential reversal, but buyers may face resistance at 0.002680–0.002750.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, with price hovering above the 50-period line, suggesting some short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are in a bearish alignment, with price currently below all three, reinforcing a bearish bias in the longer term. A crossover above the 50-period MA could signal a short-term reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive during the morning hours, forming a potential bullish signal as it crossed above the signal line. RSI, which reached oversold levels (30–25) during the 0.002413 low, began showing signs of divergence with a slight upward tick in price. This suggests a potential short-term reversal, though a break below 50 on the RSI would reaffirm bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained contracted between 0.002843 and 0.002952 during the early morning hours, followed by a sharp expansion during the breakdown. Price currently resides near the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a potential consolidation phase. A move above the upper band would suggest a bullish breakout, while a retest of the lower band could confirm bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 46.05 million Tether at 21:30 ET and remained elevated through 22:30 ET, confirming the breakdown. However, volume has since fallen significantly, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume during the morning rally suggests cautious optimism. If notional turnover rises alongside a price rebound, it could confirm a short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.002413–0.002843 swing has key retracement levels at 0.002537 (38.2%), 0.002628 (50%), and 0.002718 (61.8%). Price currently sits near 38.2%, and a move above 50% could suggest a retracement of the prior sell-off. On the daily chart, the 0.002413–0.002962 swing also offers key retracement levels at 0.002537, 0.002629, and 0.002720, with the current price hovering near the 38.2% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a backtesting strategy that targets bullish reversals at key Fibonacci and RSI levels, a buy signal could be triggered if the price closes above the 0.002581–0.002603 range on rising volume. A stop-loss could be placed below the 0.002537 support level, with a take-profit target at 0.002680–0.002750, aligning with prior resistance. This strategy would benefit from a clear break of the 50-period MA and a bullish crossover on the MACD.