The IPO Rebound: Riding Sector Outperformance in a Tariff-Turbulent Market

The U.S. IPO market in 2025 has been a tale of two dynamics: overall stagnation and pockets of explosive growth. While total IPOs through mid-June dipped to 84—raising just $13 billion, the lowest since 2022—sectors like AI, crypto, and defense have defied the gloom. Companies such as CoreWeave (CRWV), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Voyager Technologies (VOYG) are leading a revival, their stock surges defying tariff-driven uncertainty and signaling opportunities for sector rotation. For investors, this is a moment to prioritize valuation resets and structural tailwinds over macroeconomic noise.

The AI Boom: CoreWeave's Debt-Fueled Dominance

CoreWeave's 340% surge since its March 2025 IPO underscores the premium investors are placing on AI infrastructure. The company's $4 billion deal with OpenAI and its role as a supplier of Nvidia GPUs to tech giants like Microsoft and Meta have solidified its position. Yet, its reliance on debt—85% of its $23 billion 2025 capex is financed this way—poses risks. reveals volatility, but the company's market cap has still swelled to $82.7 billion.

Risk-Reward Analysis: CoreWeave is a leveraged bet on AI adoption. Investors must weigh its growth potential against debt obligations. Those with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility could benefit, but short-term traders may face whipsaw moves tied to tariff-related supply chain concerns.

Crypto's Comeback: Circle's Record Debut and Sector Catalyst

Circle's 170% first-day jump in June 2025 shattered IPO records for companies over $1 billion in valuation, reigniting crypto's public market appeal. This success has emboldened peers like Gemini to seek listings, signaling confidence in stablecoin and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems.

highlights a stark contrast: Circle's debut occurred amid heightened macro instability but still outperformed. The key differentiator? Institutional demand for regulated crypto assets in an era of yield scarcity.

Investment Thesis: Crypto's volatility remains, but Circle's regulatory compliance and partnerships (e.g., with Goldman Sachs) offer a safer entry point. Investors should pair crypto exposure with traditional equities to balance risk.

Defense and Space: Voyager's Strategic Edge

Voyager Technologies' IPO—a 100% first-day pop to a $3.8 billion valuation—reflects investor hunger for sectors insulated from tariff cycles. Its focus on low-Earth-orbit infrastructure and NASA partnerships positions it to benefit from rising global defense budgets.

shows its outperformance, driven by niche expertise in space logistics. While defense stocks often act as economic counter-cyclical plays, Voyager's tech-forward profile offers dual exposure to geopolitical and innovation trends.

The Tariff Double-Edged Sword

The June 2025 decision to hike steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% (excluding the UK) has reshaped supply chains and pricing dynamics. For sectors like defense, higher material costs could squeeze margins, but they also accelerate reshoring investments. AI firms, meanwhile, face input cost pressures but benefit from U.S. government incentives for domestic data center growth.

Sector Rotation Play: Rotate capital into AI and defense names with domestic supply chains (e.g., CoreWeave's U.S.-based GPU farms) and away from global manufacturers exposed to tariff pass-through risks. Crypto offers a hedge against inflationary pressures exacerbated by tariffs.

Private vs. Public Markets: The Tipping Point

Private markets remain crowded, with U.S. public companies now numbering just 4,000—half the 1996 count. This contraction has created a vacuum for high-growth firms to access liquidity via IPOs. While 2025's 84 IPOs are down from 150 in 2024, the quality of listings has improved, with AI/crypto/defense firms commanding premium valuations.

reveal a shift eastward, but the U.S. tech/digital sectors are still the engine of innovation. Investors should focus on IPOs with scalable revenue models and partnerships (e.g., Voyager's NASA ties), not just hype.

Investment Recommendations

1. CoreWeave (CRWV): Buy on dips below $150/share. Target $200, stop-loss at $120.
2. Circle (CRCL): Accumulate post-earnings reports, with a $20 price target.
3. Voyager (VOYG): Long-term hold, given its 30% gross profit margin growth trajectory.

Risk Management: Pair these bets with short positions in tariff-sensitive industrials (e.g., steel ETFs) to hedge against sector-specific headwinds.

Conclusion: Capitalize on Valuation Resets, Not Volatility

The 2025 IPO market is a mosaic of risk and reward. While overall volumes remain depressed, sector-specific winners are emerging in AI, crypto, and defense. Investors ignoring these trends risk missing the next leg of growth. The key is to focus on companies with defensible moats—like CoreWeave's OpenAI partnership or Voyager's NASA contracts—and avoid over-leveraged bets. Tariff uncertainty will persist, but it's also creating asymmetric opportunities: the upside in structural winners outweighs the downside of macro noise. The time to rotate into these sectors is now, before the Fed's next move and trade deal outcomes crystallize their valuations further.

Investors who act decisively here can turn tariff turbulence into profit.