iPhone Sales Lag Amid Global Smartphone Recovery, AI May Not Be the Savior for Now

Global smartphone sales are set to rebound strongly in 2024 after two consecutive years of decline. However, Apple's growth remains sluggish, highlighting that its competitors are capturing more market share.

According to the latest report from IDC, global smartphone shipments will increase by 6.2% to 1.24 billion units in 2024, ending two years of decline. In contrast, iPhone shipments are expected to grow by only 0.4% this year. Meanwhile, Android smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 7.6%, with significant growth in the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East, Africa, and China markets.

This report follows Apple CEO Tim Cook's visit to China for at least the third time this year, seeking a pass for its AI feature, Apple Intelligence, due to regulatory concerns. Meanwhile, domestic Chinese smartphone producers, including Xiaomi and Huawei, have all seen robust growth this year.

Despite this, Apple still holds a significant advantage in terms of profitability. The average selling price of an iPhone exceeds $1,000, while the average price of an Android phone is about $295, less than one-third of the iPhone's price.

Looking ahead to next year, IDC expects iPhone shipments to grow by 3.1%, surpassing the 1.7% growth expected for Android phones.

The report indicates that while the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) presents new opportunities, the recovery of the smartphone market in the post-pandemic era is uneven.

IDC states that most of the growth in 2024 will come from long-suppressed demand and regions with lower smartphone penetration rates.

Global smartphone shipments have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, and IDC forecasts that growth in the coming years will remain in the single digits. Extended upgrade cycles, market saturation in developed economies, and the rapid growth of the second-hand phone market are considered major factors contributing to market stagnation.

"Generative AI (GenAI) is a crucial focus for many smartphone vendors, its immediate impact on demand still needs to be improved, according to Nabila Popal, IDC Research Director. Although GenAI is poised to transform user experiences in the coming years, greater consumer awareness and compelling features are required to create the anticipated upgrades.