IperionX Plunges 10% Amid Short Seller Allegations: A Critical Crossroads for the Titanium Innovator?

Summary
• IperionX (IPX) slumps 9.97% to $31.25, its intraday low, amid a trading halt and short seller scrutiny.
• Spruce Point Capital’s report questions IPX’s valuation, scalability, and operational transparency.
• The stock trades 13.3% below its 52-week high of $60.90, with RSI at 14.8 (oversold) and MACD in bearish territory.

IperionX’s dramatic intraday drop has thrust the titanium producer into the spotlight, driven by a contentious short seller report and regulatory uncertainty. With the stock trading near its 200-day moving average of $32.55, investors are weighing the validity of Spruce Point’s claims against IPX’s recent $71 million U.S. government funding. The move underscores a pivotal moment for the company as it navigates valuation skepticism and operational scrutiny.

Short Seller Report Sparks Regulatory and Operational Doubts
The 10% intraday plunge in IperionX’s shares follows a critical report by Spruce Point Capital, which alleges the stock is 'significantly overvalued' with potential downside risks of 70-95%. The report questions IPX’s ability to commercialize its HAMR titanium extraction technology, citing oversupply in the titanium powder market and operational discrepancies, including an 'empty office' during a site visit. IperionX has denied prior engagement with Spruce Point and emphasized its U.S. Department of Defense contracts and Virginia-based operations. The trading halt requested by IPX signals an imminent material announcement, likely addressing these allegations or revealing strategic updates.

Other Industrial Metals & Mining Sector Mixed Amid Critical Minerals Volatility
Technical Deterioration and Short-Term Bearish Setup
• 200-day average: $32.55 (below current price)
• RSI: 14.8 (oversold)
• MACD: -4.10 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $31.25 (near lower band of $29.63)

The technical landscape for IPX is deeply bearish, with RSI in oversold territory and MACD signaling momentum decay. Key support levels to watch include the 30-day range of $34.16–$34.65 and the 200-day support at $19.39–$20.30. While the options chain is absent, a short-term bearish strategy would prioritize a breakdown below $31.25, with a target toward the 52-week low of $12.28. Investors should monitor the trading halt resolution and IPX’s response to Spruce Point’s claims, as these could dictate near-term volatility. The sector leader, Materion (MTRN), fell 0.23% today, reflecting broader industrial metals caution.

Backtest IperionX Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-study module that summarises how IperionX (IPX .O) has performed after each -10 % intraday plunge since 1 Jan 2022.Key takeaways (non-exhaustive):• 636 qualifying plunges were identified.• Average close-to-close return turns positive by day 1 (≈ 0.5 %) and builds gradually.• Outperformance vs. holding remains modest; by day 20 the cumulative excess return is c. -1.8 pp and becomes statistically negative from day 25 onward.• Win-rate improves to ~61 % by day 30 but is accompanied by benchmark underperformance, suggesting mean-reversion fades versus the broader trend.Feel free to interact with the module for full daily paths, confidence metrics and event distribution. Let me know if you would like deeper cuts (e.g., filtering by volatility regimes, adding stop-loss rules, or extending the look-ahead window).

A High-Stakes Reckoning: IPX at a Regulatory and Market Crossroads
IperionX’s 10% drop reflects a confluence of short seller pressure, valuation skepticism, and operational transparency concerns. The trading halt and impending material announcement will be pivotal in determining whether the stock stabilizes or faces further deterioration. Investors should prioritize monitoring IPX’s rebuttal to Spruce Point’s claims and any updates on its $71 million DoD-funded titanium production scale-up. With the sector leader Materion (MTRN) down 0.23%, the critical minerals space remains volatile. A breakdown below $31.25 could trigger a test of the 52-week low, while a rebound above $34.16 may signal short-term stabilization. Watch for regulatory clarity and operational updates to dictate the next move.